420
FXUS63 KPAH 302335
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
635 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TOMORROW, FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
AND MID 70S BEGINNING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
- A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS WITH POPS PEAKING
(80-100%) IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AFTERNOON HOURS.
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BUT SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE.
- SMALL RAIN CHANCES(10-30%) LINGER SATURDAY MORNING, BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SUNDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
DEEP LAYER RIDGING IS INCREASING IN INTENSITY OVERHEAD AS OUR
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN APPROACH 90 DEGREES. THE FLIP
TO THE SHARPLY AMPLIFIED RIDGING IN THE EAST IS THE LARGE
SWIRLING CLOSED LOW/REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE POLO OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN US. AS THAT SYSTEM GETS PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLY
LARGE SCALE FLOW OUR RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT,
PEAKING ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. OWING
TO ITS WARM CORE ROOTS THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH THIS
SYSTEM ARE QUITE POOR WHICH HOLDS INSTABILITY BACK DESPITE
FAIRLY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER (AND COLUMN) MOISTURE AND HEAT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE BUT MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE SHOWERS OR AREAS OF BROAD STRATIFORM
RAIN. QPF TOTALS ARE HOLDING STEADY WITH AN AREAL AVERAGE
BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND AN INCH PERSISTING IN GUIDANCE THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS TOO LIMITED FOR MUCH OF A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. 2.00 INCH PWAT VALUES AND DEEP WARM
CLOUD LAYER DEPTH POINT TOWARDS VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES
BUT FORCING/INTENSITY STILL APPEARS TOO MODEST FOR MUCH FLOODING
RISK (PROBABLY ABOUT A 5-10% CHANCE FOR FLASH FLOODING SOMEWHERE
IN THE CWA) PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE FAIRLY DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS.
BEHIND THE FRONT WE END UP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. A
SECONDARY SHOT OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR IS SENT THIS WAY MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WHICH LOOKS TO RE-OPEN THE WINDOW TO OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S MONDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THIS TAF ISSUANCE WITH
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KTS GUSTING TO AROUND 20KTS BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE OF RAIN DOESN'T ARRIVE
UNTIL JUST BEYOND THE END OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...KC
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