415
FXUS63 KPAH 010811
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
311 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW AND MID
70S BEGINNING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
- A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS WITH POPS PEAKING
(80-100%) IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE.
- SMALL RAIN CHANCES (10-30%) LINGER SATURDAY, BUT HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SUNDAY BRINING DRY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
RIDGING CONTINUES OVERHEAD FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH THE CENTER
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITTING TO THE EAST OFF THE COAST IN
THE ATLANTIC. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN PEAK IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTERWARD,
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN DURING THE EVENING. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH UPPER VALUES BETWEEN
10-20 MPH AND GUSTS BETWEEN 15-25 MPH BEFORE DYING DOWN IN THE
EVENING.
THE NEXT TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
ON FRIDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER, IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S. POPS WILL PEAK (80-100%) DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THOUGH SOME MODEST 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES EXIST WITH THESE SHOWERS, INSTABILITY REMAINS POOR.
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE. QPF STORM TOTALS CONTINUE TO SIT BETWEEN A HALF INCH
AND AN INCH FOR THIS EVENT. ADDITIONALLY, THE FLOOD THREAT
REMAINS LOW (5-10%) DUE TO THE LACK OF INTENSITY OF THESE STORMS
AND DRY PRIOR CONDITIONS.
SMALL (10-30%) CHANCES OF RAIN LINGER INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. THE COOL TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY WILL
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TAF
ISSUANCE WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MID CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE WEST, POSSIBLE APPROACHING MVFR CONDITIONS TOWARD THE VERY
END OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE AS RAIN ARRIVES OVER SEMO CLOSER TO
06Z/02. WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
AROUND 10KTS GUSTING TO AROUND 20KTS BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW 10KTS AFTER SUNSET.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AZ
AVIATION...KC
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