399
FXUS63 KPAH 012253
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
553 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS WITH POPS PEAKING (80-100%) IN
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED, BUT SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE.
- SMALL RAIN CHANCES (10-30%) LINGER SATURDAY, BUT HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SUNDAY BRINING DRY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
THE LARGE SWIRLING UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS HARD TO
MISS WHEN YOU TAKE A LOOK AT OUR WEATHER PICTURE THIS MORNING.
AHEAD OF THAT LOW IS RICH EAST PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE THROUGH
A DEEP COLUMN WITH PWAT VALUES OVER 2 INCHES PRODUCING AREAS OF
RAIN ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. A COMBINATION OF JET
LEVEL AND FRONTAL ASCENT SHOULD KEEP A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF RAIN
AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO GOING. THESE WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. PEAK RAIN
CHANCES LOOK TO BE FRIDAY MORNING, BUT EXPECT AT LEAST SOME
LINGERING RAIN TO TRAIL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD GET
THROUGH THE AREA BY MIDDAY TOMORROW. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TOO
LOOK TOO MEAGER FOR SEVERE WEATHER THREATS, AND RAINFALL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LOOK TOO LIMITED FOR MUCH FLOOD RISK
GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA.
HIGHS BEHIND THE FRONT FALL INTO THE MID 70S. A REINFORCING
FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE AREA WHICH SHOULD HELP MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE 40S. A LITTLE BIT OF A TREND TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES LOOKS PLAUSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK BUT
NOTHING TO THE DEGREE WE ARE SEEING TODAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 539 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT SHIFTING WINDS
TO THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT; HOWEVER, THEY WILL BECOME MORE
GUSTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH DEEPER MIXING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
RAIN AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE AROUND MIDNIGHT, THEN LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES.
CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUAL TO IMPROVE FROM THE WEST TOWARD THE
VERY END OF THE TAF ISSUANCE.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...KC
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