887
FXUS63 KPAH 041740
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1240 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THIS WEEK, FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
DRY NW H5 FLOW AND SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER QUIET ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER, AS H5 HEIGHTS RISE, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
WARM UP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. BY FRIDAY, THE
AREA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY
IS THE INTRODUCTION OF POPS (25-40%) FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT THAT TROPICAL GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH
INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS (POSSIBLY REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE?), AND IT IS POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES COULD
LINGER THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. THE DETAILS ARE
VERY MUDDY AT THIS POINT, SO EXPECT ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST IN THE COMING DAYS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
THE TAFS ARE VFR. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, WINDS WILL BE STEADY
FROM THE N TO NE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS AFTERNOON
WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 6-10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15
KTS POSSIBLE AT CGI AND PAH. TONIGHT, WINDS WILL RELAX TO 2-4
KTS, THEN INCREASE FROM THE NE AFTER 15Z MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page