737
FXUS63 KPAH 060555
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1255 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
- TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF MAY BRING PORTIONS OF OUR
REGION RAIN OVER THE COMING WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO A LARGER DIURNAL
RANGE WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 40S EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE
JUMPING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 THIS AFTERNOON. DID ADJUST DEW
POINTS DOWN A LITTLE BIT FROM THE NBM (SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY) WHICH
RESULTS IN MINIMUM RH'S FALLING INTO THE 25-30% RANGE IN SOME AREAS.
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT
THEN A WIND SHIFT BACK TO NORTHEASTERLY WILL USHER IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY.
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR A DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF THAT
IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY (80% CHANCE) TO DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A POSSIBLE
LANDFALL OCCURRING ALONG THE GULF SOMETIME ON SATURDAY AND THEN THE
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD AMONGST GUIDANCE ON HOW FAR
NORTHWEST TO BRING THE RAIN SHIELD THOUGH. WEST KENTUCKY AND
SOUTHWEST INDIANA SEEM TO BE THE MOST FAVORED REGIONS TO OBSERVE A
DECENT SOAKING RAIN AT THE MOMENT. BUT THIS COULD EASILY SHIFT EAST
OR WEST IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME THE E TO SE AROUND 4-7KTS
AFTER 15Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHER THAN
SOME SHALLOW RIVER FOG DEVELOPMENT AT CGI AROUND DAYBREAK
(10-12Z), VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...DWS
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