476
FXUS63 KPAH 062306
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
606 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
- TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF MAY BRING PORTIONS OF OUR
REGION RAIN OVER THE COMING WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
CONDITIONS ARE ABOUT AS PLEASANT AND BENIGN AS YOU CAN GET
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FROM THE
NORTHEAST INITIALLY THEN A NEW SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
A TROPICAL SYSTEM BREWING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF IS SHOWING
INCREASING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR EARLY TOMORROW. GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENT ON BRINGING VERSIONS OF THIS SYSTEM AT VARYING
INTENSITIES INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST BY SATURDAY OR
SUNDAY FOR NOW. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING THIS SYSTEM STARTS TO
PROVIDE INCREASED LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
ADVECTION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND, AS ANTICIPATED,
RAIN CHANCES ARE INCREASING SATURDAY PM AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.
PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND 2.00 INCHES AS MODELED CURRENTLY AND
BOUTS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEAR POSSIBLE. GFS TRACKS THIS
SYSTEM TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WHERE THE LATEST ECMWF TENDS TO
BRING THE REMNANTS MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON WHEN, WHERE, AND HOW INTENSELY THE STORM DEVELOPS IN
IT'S APPROACH TO THE GULF COAST. A NOAA SYNOPTIC MISSION IS
UNDERWAY TODAY TO EVALUATE THE AIRMASS IN AND AROUND THE
DEVELOPING STORM AND SUBSEQUENT RUNS OF GUIDANCE SHOULD HAVE
THIS DATA FACTORED IN. WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR A
PRECURSOR RAINFALL EVENT, A DIRECT TRACK OF THE ACTUAL CYCLONE
REMNANTS ON TOP OF THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING ISSUES BY
SUNDAY EVENING, BUT WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE DETAILS PLAY
OUT.
BOTH GFS/ECMWF CLEAR THE UPPER TROUGH BY MONDAY PUTTING US BACK
IN A STABLE HIGH-PRESSURE REGIME WITH SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM OVERNIGHT UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. AT CGI, IMPACTS FROM SHALLOW RIVER FOG ARE POSSIBLE
AGAIN DURING THE 09-13Z WINDOW. STARTED WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS
HERE, BUT BASED ON YESTERDAY'S OBSERVATIONS MAY NEED TO TREND
THIS MORE PESSIMISTICALLY WITH THE NEXT UPDATE. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH WINDS BECOMING W-SW AROUND 4-8 KTS
AFTER 13Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...DWS
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