480
FXUS63 KPAH 100443
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1143 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WITH THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS WE CAN EXPECT 70-100%
RAIN CHANCES MAINLY OVER WESTERN KY, SOUTHEAST IL, AND
SOUTHWEST IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA (AREAS FURTHER WEST) WILL SEE 30-60%
RAIN CHANCES.
- RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO AROUND AN INCH WITH
THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS WESTERN KY. A FEW POCKETS OF LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY BE POSSIBLE.
- 20-40% RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
ISAIAS CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER EAST IN ITS TRACK AND IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE LANDFALL THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS FROM ISAIAS ARE GRADUALLY
STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60.
AS ISAIAS MOVES INLAND THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO EAST KY AROUND SUNDAY MORNING. MAIN IMPACTS FOR US WILL BE
TOMORROW MAINLY OVER WESTERN KY, SOUTHEAST IL, AND SOUTHWEST IN.
RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND MID MORNING
TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES PEAK AROUND 70-100% OVER WESTERN KY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SOME BANDS OF 70-80% MOVING INTO SOUTHERN IL BY
SATURDAY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND ANY SEVERE THREAT REMAINS WELL
OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES TOMORROW WITH STORM
TOTALS UP TO AROUND 1" WITH A FEW POCKETS OF LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS UP TO
30-35 MPH. RAIN CHANCES THEN TAPER OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY MORNING.
AFTER A COOLER DAY IN THE 70S TOMORROW, TEMPERATURES REBOUND BY
MONDAY BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S, PUSHING 90 IN SOME PLACES.
TEMPERATURES COME DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT TURNED WARM FRONT DRAPED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO 20-40% AND CONTINUE ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. WINDS
SHIFT TO EASTERLY AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY AND BECOME BREEZY
MIDDAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS REMNANTS FROM ISAIAS APPROACH.
RAINBANDS APPEAR LESS LIKELY TO REACH WESTERN TERMINALS WHILE
EASTERN SITES SHOULD RECEIVE SEVERAL HOURS OF RAIN SHOWERS IN
THE AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS, ESPECIALLY IN THE KENTUCKY
PENNYRILE. VSBY DROPS TO MVFR ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. CIGS REDUCE TO MVFR IN MOST AREAS WITH EVENING
RAIN, AND TO IFR IN SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS. LIGHTNING IS
POSSIBLE, MAINLY LIMITED TO EASTERN SITES LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...ATL
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