778
FXUS63 KPAH 101140
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
640 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS (40 TO 90% CHANCES) WILL SPREAD ACROSS
WEST KENTUCKY THIS MORNING, THEN ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA,
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI EAST OF A
PERRYVILLE TO MARBLE HILL TO DEXTER LINE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING IN THESE AREAS.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO
WEST KENTUCKY, SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN WEST KENTUCKY.
- NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25
TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
- PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
- AFTER MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY, WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
- CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
THE TRACK OF ISAIAS REMAINS WELL EAST OF OUR REGION, AND THE MAIN
EFFECT OF THIS TRACK FOR OUR AREA IS GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS, AND AN INCREASE IN WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MODEL BLEND PRODUCES 40-90% CHANCES TODAY INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS ALL BUT OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI, AND HAS BACKED OFF A LITTLE MORE ON OUR POTENTIAL WIND
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO 25 TO AROUND 30 MPH.
RAINFALL TOTALS RANGE FROM AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR LESS ACROSS
MOST OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND EXTREME SOUTH MISSOURI, TO A HALF
INCH OR LESS IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA, TO AROUND AN INCH IN WEST
KENTUCKY AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. PRECIPITATION WILL
GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE RETURN OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY WILL ALSO BRING THE RETURN OF WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH
LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL REACH NEAR RECORD TO RECORD READINGS THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
MODELS SHOW AN UNSETTLED PATTERN SETTING UP FOR MID TO LATE WEEK,
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY, LINGERING IN THE VICINITY, FOLLOWED BY A LATE WEEK
COLD FRONT. TIMING AND LOCATION ARE STILL IN QUESTION, BUT THIS WILL
BRING AN END TO THE RECORD HEAT AND GIVE OUR AREA ON AND OFF
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY.
CHANCES ARE OVERALL IN THE 20-50% RANGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, BUT
AS TIMING GETS A LITTLE MORE DEFINED, WE COULD SEE SOME PERIODS
WITH BETTER CHANCES. AS MENTIONED, THIS PATTERN WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN, BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. NORMAL HIGHS BY THAT TIME ARE
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AND LOWS ARE THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S. IF
THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT TIMING PANS OUT, MORE SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 20Z.
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON, REACHING
KOWB/KEVV/KPAH FROM 18Z-21Z, WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR BETWEEN
20-23Z WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS. TSRA POSSIBLE AT KEVV/KOWB
BETWEEN 22Z-03Z, THEN AFTER 03Z CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR WITH
VCSH. CIGS AT KPAH WILL LOWER TO LOW MVFR/IFR AFTER 00Z, AND AT
KCGI/KMVN AROUND 03Z-06Z. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO 10-15KT WITH GUSTS AT 18-25KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, THEN SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 6-12KTS AFTER 03Z.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...RST
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