142
FXUS63 KPAH 120501
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1201 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE OF RECORD HIGHS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, AND POSSIBLY SOME RECORD WARM LOWS.
- VARIED RAIN CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. CHANCES DECREASE SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
AND TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY MORNING.
- RIGHT NOW THERE ARE SOME EARLY INDICATIONS OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AT THIS
POINT.
- COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SATURDAY COULD SEE HIGHS AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S POSSIBLE. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WILL STALL OUT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
BEFORE MOVING ON AS A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. 20-30% SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES INFILTRATE THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. CHANCES THEN INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TO 60-80%, THEN DROPPING DOWN TO A NEAR AREA
WIDE 50-60% WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CHANCES THEN CONTINUE
ON THURSDAY WITH A BIT MORE OF A GRADIENT WITH 20-60% CHANCES FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. RIGHT NOW THERE ARE SOME EARLY INDICATIONS
OF THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ATTENDANT SFC LOW, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGH AT THIS POINT. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. CHANCES TAPER OFF
BY FRIDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ARE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES COULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
SATURDAY, IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
DENSE FOG WILL SLIGHTLY INTRUDE ON EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE QUAD
STATE REGION THROUGH SUNRISE, LIKELY INCLUDING KOWB. TO THE WEST,
SHALLOW FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR RIVERS/LAKES. HIGH CLOUDS MOVE
THROUGH OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING, WITH A FEW MID-CLOUD CUMULUS
DURING THE DAY. CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME BREEZY OUT OF THE
SW AROUND 8-10KTS GUSTING TO 14-17KTS DURING THE MIDDAY TO
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS DECREASE TO 5KTS TOWARDS THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...ATL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page