978
FXUS63 KPAH 121157
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
657 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR RECORD TO RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.
- GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FROM 30% TO 60% SOUTHEAST TO
60% TO 95% NORTH AND WEST.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN NEAR
RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES, WITH TUESDAY A LITTLE WARMER IN THE 88 TO 95 DEGREE
RANGE. WE MAY ALSO SEE RECORD WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS AS READINGS
TONIGHT ONLY DROP INTO THE 60S, AND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN A
LITTLE FOR MID WEEK, BUT WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL,
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS.
MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE RETURN OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SINK INTO
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS WEDNESDAY, MEANDERING
OVER OUR REGION INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, FINALLY PUSHING THE FRONT ON
THROUGH OUR AREA. THE MODEL BLEND STILL SPREADS CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY IS NOW DRY,
BUT THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT BRING DOWN CONFIDENCE THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL END BY THEN, SO SOME FINE TUNING IS STILL LIKELY.
IN THE MEANTIME, PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE FRONT, AND BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON RANGE FROM 30-60% ACROSS
THE PENNYRILE AND LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES REGIONS OF WEST
KENTUCKY, TO 70-95% ACROSS THE REST OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA.
THE PATTERN OF LOWEST TO HIGHEST CHANCES FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE, WITH 30-65% CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
20-70% THURSDAY, AND 10-40% THURSDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY, WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30MPH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL HELP USHER IN
MUCH COOLER AIR, WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER
70S, AND SATURDAY HIGHS OF 60 TO 65 DEGREES. IT WILL FINALLY
REALLY FEEL LIKE FALL WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S, AND SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE. A
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS SUNDAY WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND,
WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH JUST FEW050
CUMULUS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND OCCASIONAL FEW-SCT250. WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO 6-12KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND
15KTS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN DECREASE TO 4-8KTS AFTER 00Z.
INCLUDED LLWS AT KMVN AFTER 07Z WITH 2K WINDS OF 26035KT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...RST
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