037
FXUS63 KPAH 152214
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
514 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY FOR AREAS IN THE VICINITY OF AND NORTH OF I-64. THE
MAIN THREATS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
TORNADO.
- COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE BREEZY WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.
- SATURDAY NIGHT HAS A PRETTY GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A FIRST FROST
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S.
- SUNDAY KICKS OFF A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS RETURNING BACK TO
AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 510 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS
ITS PARENT SFC LOW MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN MO AND ITS
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWER AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO REDEVELOP OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SPC UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2
OF 5) OVER OUR NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN IL AND SOUTHWEST
IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
DESTABILIZATION DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND
EXCESSIVELY HIGH PWATS THAT ARE GREATER THAN 2" CAUSING THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. THE MAIN THREATS THIS AFTERNOON WOULD
BE DAMAGING WINDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
LOOKING INTO MODEL SOUNDINGS THERE COULD BE A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS OR "SPINNY SHOWERS" WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE
POSSIBILITY OF A "SNEAKY" TORNADO OR TWO. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON THE EVOLVING SITUATION THIS AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT
EXISTS MAINLY TILL SUNSET AS CONDITIONS WANE QUICKLY AFTER THAT,
HOWEVER SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.
A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND BRINGS US A BIG
COOL DOWN FOR TOMORROW AND SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE 25-30 DEGREES
COOLER TOMORROW AS THEY STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 DEGREES, AND WILL HOVER
RIGHT AROUND 60 ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TOMORROW WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES. SATURDAY
NIGHT SHOWS A PRETTY GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A FIRST FROST ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF THE CWA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S. TEMPERATURES
THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE SUNDAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 510 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
ACTUVE CONVECTION EXISTS ON THE NOSE OF A LIFTING WARM SECTOR
AND IS FOCUSED BETWEEN KMVN-KEVV. A TRAILING LINE OF CU STILL
SEEN ON SUNSETTING VISIBLE IMAGERY MAY ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT, BUT WILL ONLY LAST 1-3 HOURS PAST NIGHTFALL AS
FUELING IS LOST; MAINTAINED PROB30 GROUPINGS FOR SAID POTENTIAL
CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS/VSBYS, THEN
TRANSITIONED TO LOWER BASES/CIGS OVERNIGHT AS THE PARENT COLD
FRONT MAKES ITS APPROACH AND PASSAGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SHIFTING WINDS TO NWLY WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE 20S KTS,
CONTINUING INTO/THRU TMRW WITH STUBBORN TO YIELD BASES/CIGS
EVEN IF/AS LIFTING THRU MVFR TOWARD LOW END VFR.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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