897
FXUS61 KPBZ 082349
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
649 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG EARLY SUNDAY SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AFTER DAWN WITH A PASSING LOW PRESSURE
DISTURBANCE. RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
DARK SUNDAY WITH ADVANCING COLD AIR. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD
IMPACT THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS NORTH OF I-80 MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- POTENTIAL FOR FOG EARLY SUNDAY SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AFTER DAWN SUNDAY
- RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW BETWEEN 7PM TO 11PM SUNDAY
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QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM LATE THIS EVENING
UNTIL 2AM, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THERE'S A
POSSIBILITY OF CLEARING SKIES SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH, WHICH COULD
LEAD TO FOG FORMATION.
A LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER ILLINOIS WILL MOVE INTO OUR
AREA AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES AS WINDS
REMAIN FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND/OR VARIABLE, THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN. EXPECT LIGHT RAINFALL, RANGING
FROM A TRACE A TENTH OF AN INCH TO A QUARTER OF INCH THROUGH
7PM.
FROM 7PM TO 11PM, RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY CHANGE TO
A WINTRY MIX BEFORE TURNING INTO SNOW. AS THE LOW-PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST INTO NEW YORK, NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
LIKELY BRING LAKE-EFFECT SNOW DUE TO WARM LAKE TEMPERATURES.
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND WEST VIRGINIA
MIGHT SEE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS WELL DUE TO
UPSLOPING.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- SNOW SHOWER EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
- TRAVEL IMPACTS COULD OCCUR IN AREAS UNDER A LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
BAND
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FALLING TEMPERATURES AND ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WITH WARM GROUND
TEMPERATURES AND PRIOR TO THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH, ONLY A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH (MAINLY ON GRASS AND ELEVATED SURFACES) ARE
EXPECTED BY SUNRISE ON MONDAY.
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY. DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE UPPER PATTERNS BETWEEN THE GEFS
AND THE EURO WITH THE DURATION OF THE NW FLOW. DIFFERENCES IN THE
FLOW WOULD RESULT IN DIFFERING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES, THE PICTURE REMAINS THE SAME THAT NW FLOW
WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
OH VALLEY.
850MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BETWEEN -8 TO -10 DEG C
BY MONDAY, WHILE LAKE ERIE TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND +12 TO +14 DEG
C. LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE FLOW BACKS TO THE W AND THE MOST EFFICIENT LAKE AND
TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT IS TURNED NORTH OF THE REGION. MESOSCALE
FEATURES (SUCH AS A REINFORCING SURFACE TROUGH) WILL GREATLY AFFECT
SFC TO 850MB FLOW AND THUS THE POSITIONING, DURATION, AND INTENSITY
OF ANY HEAVIER FOCUSED LAKE BANDS REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME. DESPITE THIS, MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE LIKELIHOOD OF ONE
OR SEVERAL LAKE BANDS YIELDING ENHANCED SNOWFALL NEAR AND SOUTH OF
LAKE ERIE. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL CONTINUE TO
FLUCTUATE. CURRENTLY, THERE IS A 40%-60% NORTH OF I-80 WHILE
THE PA AND WV RIDGES PROBABILITIES REMAIN BETWEEN 30%-40%. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND
PATTERN OVER THE COMING FORECAST PERIODS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TUESDAY
- UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN/SNOW
CHANCES MAINLY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH
- APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TUESDAY MORNING
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THE SURFACE TROUGH IS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY, AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BACKS TO THE SW AND SNOW CHANCES
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IS THEN EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ACROSS AREAS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO NEW ENGLAND.
OCCASIONAL RAIN/SNOW CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY NORTH OF PIT,
AS INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BEFORE MODERATING SOME BY MID WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
COMPLEX AND METEOROLOGICALLY DIVERSE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED
FOR AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, CREATING FEW PERIODS
OF HIGH CONFIDENCE AND POTENTIAL FOR WIDE RESTRICTION
VARIABILITY.
HEIGHT RISES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERNIGHT
SHOULD FAVOR VFR WITH STREAMS OF CIRRUS ALOFT THROUGH 12Z;
HOWEVER, A STALLED BOUNDARY NEAR FKL/DUJ THAT MAY FLUCTUATE
SLIGHTLY IN POSITIONING WILL FAVOR MVFR TO IFR CIGS NORTH OF ITS
POSITIONING. ADDITIONALLY, VARIOUS HI-RES GUIDANCE AND CROSS-
OVER METHODOLOGY SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL AREA OF LIFR STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPING NEAR ZZV THROUGH PIT PRIOR TO DAWN. DUE TO INCOMING
CIRRUS, KEPT PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE LOW.
CROSSING OF AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW CENTER WILL
FAVOR A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN THAT MOVES NE BETWEEN
12Z-18Z AND SHOULD FOSTER MVFR/IFR CIGS. VARIANCE IN CIG HEIGHTS
WILL BE HIGHEST EAST OF PIT BASED ON LOW CENTER POSITION,
MEANING VFR TO IFR HEIGHTS ARE ALL A POSSIBILITY. ON AND OFF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE FAVORED AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE, TRENDING
TOWARD A DRIER AFTERNOON, BUT A CROSSING SURFACE COLD FRONT
SHOULD FOSTER A WESTERLY WIND SHIFT AND DOWNWARD TREND TOWARD
IFR CIGS.
OUTLOOK...
DEEPENING OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL
CREATE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WHILE BEGINNING A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST
PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW.
VARIATION IN THE UPPER TROUGH PATH FOR MONDAY REMAINS HIGH, BUT
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES FAVORS LIFTING AFTERNOON CIGS WHILE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS THAT COULD
RAPIDLY REDUCE VISIBILITY. DEVELOPMENT OF MORE LAKE EFFECT BANDS
IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY OF WHICH
NARROW BANDS OF IFR AND LOWER RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE
HEAVY SNOW.
HEIGHT RISES AND DRY ADVECTION SHOULD PROVIDE AREAWIDE
IMPROVEMENTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY, REMAINING FOR VFR
THROUGH END OF THE WEEK (SAVE FOR ANY LINGERING LAKE ENHANCEMENT
FOR NW PA).
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HEFFERAN
NEAR TERM...HEFFERAN
SHORT TERM...88/LUPO
LONG TERM...LUPO/AK
AVIATION...FRAZIER
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