043
FXUS61 KPBZ 111121
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
621 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF CONTINUE THIS MORNING
WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 RESULTING IN LOCALIZED IMPACTFUL ACCUMULATION,
AND UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE PA AND WV RIDGES WILL ALSO RESULT IN
SNOWFALL IMPACTS. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF OVER THE COURSE OF THE
AFTERNOON. DISTURBANCE ON WEDNESDAY WILL REINTRODUCE RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS IN
THE LOWLANDS
- HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE RIDGES WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND I-80 CORRIDOR
WITH LAKE EFFECT BANDS
- SNOW TAPERS OFF TODAY
- GUSTY WIND
---------------------------------------------------------------
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY TWO BANDS OF SNOW COMING OFF THE LAKE
IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND WHILE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
BANDS HAS BEEN OBSERVED SE TO THE RIDGES, THE MAIN AREAS
IMPACTED APPEAR TO BE NORTH OF I-80 WHERE RATES ARE HIGHEST.
ELSEWHERE FARTHER SOUTH, JUDGING BY THE MINIMAL REPORTS WE HAVE
RECEIVED SO FAR AND GOING THROUGH ALL AVAILABLE WEBCAMS, THE
MAIN ROADS LOOK IN DECENT SHAPE SO FAR, AND ACCUMULATIONS SEEM
(FROM WHAT WE CAN TELL THUS FAR) TO BE LARGELY ON GRASSY AND
ELEVATED SURFACES, AND ANY UNTREATED ROADS. LATEST HIRES
GUIDANCE GENERALLY IS IN LINE WITH LATEST NBM GUIDANCE SHIFTING
THE BANDS EAST OVER THE COURSE OF THE MORNING AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO BACK AND
BECOME MORE WESTERLY.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO GET SOME HIGHLY LOCALIZED 8-10"
REPORTS NORTH OF I-80 WHERE BANDS PERSISTED FOR A GOOD AMOUNT OF
TIME OVERNIGHT, WITH AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE NORTH OF I-80 IN THE 2-4"
RANGE.
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS EFFECTIVE IN
THE RIDGES AS FLOW BACK TO THE WEST AND ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS MORNING. THE WV RIDGES COULD SEE 2-4 MORE
INCHES WHILE THE PA RIDGES ANOTHER INCH OR TWO.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
25-35 KNOT LOW LEVEL FLOW WORKING INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THAT
COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TEENS /
HIGH SINGLE DIGITS INCREASING ONLY INTO THE LOWER 20S.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- PASSING DISTURBANCE MAINTAINS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF
I-80 AND IN THE RIDGES ON WEDNESDAY
----------------------------------------------------------------
UPPER TROUGHING REMAINS DOMINANT ON WEDNESDAY WITH TRANSIENT SURFACE
RIDGING MAINTAINING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH. TO
THE NORTH AND IN THE RIDGES, ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH PVA AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE. FLOW
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY OUT OF THE WEST THUS KEEPING THE BEST LAKE
EFFECT TUCKED CLOSER TO THE LAKE ITSELF. WE'LL STRUGGLE TO GET A
GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR WITH SURFACE FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA, SO SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MORE MARGINAL WITH THIS EVENT. NBM
PROBABILITY FOR >1" IS LOW IN OUR AREA (<20%) WHICH MAKES SENSE
GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT, AND ANY ACCUMULATION MAY BE CONFINED TO
ELEVATED SURFACES. WIND WILL STILL BE GUSTY BUT WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES WON'T SEE A WIND CHILL IMPACT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
- DRY WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
- TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
-------------------------------------------------------------------
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SUBTLY RISING
HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER TROUGH KICKS EASTWARD INTO ATLANTIC CANADA AND
AN UPPER RIDGE NOSES INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE
SFC, HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE WEST AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. WITH SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES, TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND
UPWARDS THROUGH LATE WEEK, APPROACHING AVERAGE BY FRIDAY. A SLOW
MOVING WARM FRONT LOOKS TO RETURN RAIN CHANCES BY FRIDAY NIGHT,
BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PARENT LOW
LATER THIS WEEKEND.
ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE GETS KICKED EASTWARD
BY A WESTERN TROUGH ON SATURDAY, RESIDING ALMOST OVERHEAD. HOWEVER,
THEY QUICKLY DIVERGE ON SUNDAY WITH THEIR DEPTH AND LOCATION OF SAID
WESTERN TROUGH. A COUPLE CLUSTERS FEATURE HEIGHT FALLS FOR OUR AREA
AS AN OPEN WAVE PRESSES EASTWARD AND BREAKS THE RIDGE DOWN SHUNTING
IT EASTWARD. ANOTHER CLUSTER SLOWS THE PATTERN DOWN BY DEVELOPING A
CUTOFF LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS ALLOWING RIDGING TO REMAIN
OVERHEAD.
EITHER WAY, BOTH SCENARIOS HINT AT THE RIDGE MOVING EASTWARD AND THE
RETURN OF UPPER TROUGHING TO END THE WEEKEND OR BEGIN NEXT WEEK.
THIS WOULD BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER, THE
DIFFERENCE REMAINS IN JUST HOW FAST WE GET THERE. FOR NOW THE
FORECAST FEATURES ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY
AND THEN DROPPING TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO
REMAIN ELEVATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MOST PORTS REMAIN VFR AT THIS TIME, WITH LOWER MVFR AND IFR OBSERVED
AT FKL/DUJ AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW STREAMERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH.
IFR RESTRICTIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN MODERATE SNOW BUT ARE
LIKELY LIMITED TO ONLY FKL WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY AT DUJ AS WELL.
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TRAIL OFF NORTH OF PITTSBURGH
THIS AFTERNOON, RETURNING AREA WIDE VFR AMID DRIER AIR AND BACKING
FLOW. WESTERLY WINDS REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 25-30 KNOTS AT MOST TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK... RESTRICTION POTENTIAL RETURNS WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF PITTSBURGH, AS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP UNDER ANOTHER
CROSSING TROUGH. VFR RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ007-008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ009-074-076.
OH...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ510>512.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ513-
514.
SYNOPSIS...MLB/88
NEAR TERM...MLB/88/LUPO
SHORT TERM...MLB/88
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...RACKLEY/AK
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