120
FXUS61 KPBZ 120003
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
703 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION, STEADIEST
NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH. SNOW SHOWERS SHIFT NORTHWARD AND
SLOWLY COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WEDNESDAY BRINGS A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PROMOTES DRY WEATHER TO END
THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- SNOW TO SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AND TAPER OFF TODAY
- GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE
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RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL AREAS OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO FAR EASTERN OH AND WESTERN PA. VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS HAVE BEEN THE LARGEST HAZARDS AS MOST OF THIS SNOW IS NOT
ACCUMULATING ON ROADWAYS (EXCEPT IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS). THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND SLOWLY LOSE
ORGANIZATION AS THE FLOW BACKS TO THE WEST AND THE BEST LAKE
CONNECTION SHIFTS NORTHWARD, OUT OF OUR REGION.
THE MOST PERSISTENT AREAS OF SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT SAW BETWEEN 8-10
INCHES FALL NEAR THE VENANGO/FOREST COUNTY LINE AND SAW OVER A FOOT
OF SNOW FALL ACROSS EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY. ADDITIONAL TOTALS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY JUST A
DUSTING SOUTH OF I-80 AND PERHAPS ANOTHER 0.5 INCHES ON
GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES NORTH OF I-80 AS THE AXIS OF SNOW SHOWERS
SWINGS TO THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN THESE TRENDS, ALL WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1 PM.
WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER
GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON (FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH)
BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVERNIGHT AND WINDS CALM SOME
BUT DON'T ABATE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF
40 DEGREES AND THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS MAY NOT EVEN CRACK FREEZING
TODAY.
POPS INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS A WARM FRONT TIED TO WEAK SFC DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
REGION. THIS REINTRODUCES SNOWFALL CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA,
HIGHEST NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- PASSING DISTURBANCE MAINTAINS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-
80 AND IN THE RIDGES ON WEDNESDAY
- A RAIN/SNOW MIX TURNS TO ALL RAIN AND THEN ENDS ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS
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ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AT THE SFC A LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC,
DRAPING A COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. THE CROSSING OF
THIS FRONT WILL RETURN A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN IN THE NORTH AND ACROSS THE RIDGES IN
WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WESTERLY FLOW LIKELY KEEPS THE BEST LAKE EFFECT
TO OUR NORTH AND ISN'T THE MOST EFFICIENT WIND DIRECTION FOR UPSLOPE
ACROSS OUR RIDGES EITHER. 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM BETWEEN 7-
8 C OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. MANY OF
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A MELTING SNOW FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION EARLY, REACHING A SFC LAYER NEAR TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING BEFORE TURNING TO MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM
AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX RETREATS INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A RAIN/SNOW
MIX MAY TURN BACK OVER TO ALL SNOW AS TEMPERATURES DROP OVERNIGHT
BUT BY THEN THE SFC TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE REGION AND MOISTURE
WILL BE FLEETING. ALL OF THESE COMBINE TO YIELD LOW SNOWFALL TOTALS.
PROBABILITIES FOR 1 INCH OF SNOWFALL FROM THE NBM ARE LESS THAN 10%
AND FROM THE HREF PEAK IN THE 40-50% RANGE IN THE EASTERN RIDGES.
RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE
SFC AS WARMING TEMPERATURES; OUR HIGHS TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND COULD STRIKE 50
DEGREES IN THE SOUTHERN RIVER VALLEYS. WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY AS
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AGAIN, BUT WIND CHILL
WILL BE LESS OF AN ISSUE WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
POPS TREND DOWNWARDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE WEAK SFC TROUGH FLEES
EASTWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL COME UP SEVERAL DEGREES COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS AND PORTIONS OF THE REGION COULD STAY ABOVE
FREEZING ALL NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
- DRY WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND, MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF RAIN
- PATTERN UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK; LOW RAIN
CHANCES AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPS BEST FORECAST
FOR NOW
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ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INITIALLY NORTH OF I-80
THURSDAY MORNING, BUT THESE SHOULD END BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
RIDGING AND SLOWLY RISING 500MB HEIGHTS TAKE HOLD. MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER IS THEN FORESEEN INTO SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD, WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING TO AROUND CLIMATOLOGY BY
FRIDAY.
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY RETURN LIGHT RAIN CHANCES AS EARLY
AS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SATURDAY LOOK TO
BE A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. BETTER RAIN
CHANCES RETURN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THANKS TO GREAT
LAKES LOW PRESSURE.
MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE A 500MB RIDGE AXIS CROSSING AT SOME
POINT SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT THEY CONTINUE TO DIVERGE
GREATLY THEREAFTER. SOME SOLUTIONS HOLD ON TO RIDGING LONGER BY
DEVELOPING A CUTOFF UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST AND SLOWING THE
PATTERN DOWN, WHICH WOULD KEEP US A BIT WARMER. MEANWHILE,
OTHERS FEATURE AN UPPER MIDWEST SHORTWAVE KNOCKING DOWN THE
RIDGE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER COOLDOWN.
FOR NOW, THE FORECAST OF LEAST REGRET APPEARS TO BE CONTINUED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY, ALONG WITH A DROP TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURE, BUT NOT AS COLD AS EARLY THIS WEEK. AT THIS TIME,
ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY-SEASON WINTER WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE IN THE CARDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING AT ALL TERMINALS TO START THE TAF
PERIOD AS A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK WITH CIGS AROUND 10-12KFT
OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. GRADUAL LOWERING OF CEILINGS
WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME BREEZY AND THE
LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO MOISTEN ONCE AGAIN. MVFR CEILINGS RETURN TO
FKL/DUJ BY SUNRISE AND CONTINUE TO DROP TO IFR BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. CEILINGS WILL BE HIGHER THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU GO, WITH
THE BVI/PIT/AGC/LBE CORRIDOR LIKELY LOCATED RIGHT ALONG THE
THRESHOLD OF LOW VFR OR HIGH MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. TERMINALS FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST (ZZV/HLG/MGW)
REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
STARTING AROUND SUNRISE AND LASTING THROUGH MORNING HOURS AT
AND NORTH OF A PIT-LBE LINE, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
PREVAILING PRECIPITATION OCCURRING NORTH OF I-80 AT FKL/DUJ.
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FROM THESE BEFORE WARM AIR
ADVECTION FORCES A TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN BY MID TO LATE
MORNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AFTER SUNRISE AS GUSTS INCREASE TO 25-30
KNOTS.
SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-80 TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE
TERMINALS THAT SAW CEILINGS DIP TO MVFR DURING THE MORNING
BEGIN TO SEE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS BACK TO LOW-END VFR. SHOWERS
AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT FKL/DUJ.
WINDS EVERYWHERE SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TOWARDS THE
TAIL END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR
MAY TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
DROP, BUT ANY ACCUMULATION WOULD BE LIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO WIND DOWN BEFORE 12Z THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY VFR THE REST OF
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CL/AK
NEAR TERM...AK
SHORT TERM...AK
LONG TERM...CL
AVIATION...CERMAK
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