804
FXUS61 KPBZ 120708
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
208 AM EST WED NOV 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN TO THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AND MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURE TO END THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- SNOW, THEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX, WITH A PASSING DISTURBANCE,
FAVORING I-80 AND THE RIDGES.
- GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE
---------------------------------------------------------------
THOUGH A FEW OCCASIONAL FLURRIES CONTINUE, MEASURABLE SNOWFALL
HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
SHOWS SKIES BEGINNING TO BRIEFLY CLEAR FOR EASTERN OHIO JUST
INTO SW PA, BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A MID-LEVEL DECK
QUICKLY FILLS IN UPSTREAM.
POPS WILL INCREASE AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH AND EVENTUAL WEAK COLD FRONT CROSS THE AREA. CHANCES
REMAIN HIGHEST NORTH OF PITTSBURGH AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR AND IN THE PA RIDGES. GIVEN THERMAL PROFILES, SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN AS SNOW THIS MORNING, MIXING WITH RAIN AS
TEMPERATURES WARM LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ANY ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE, LIMITED TO A FEW TENTHS
AT MOST ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR. PROBABILITIES FOR EVEN 0.5" ARE
LESS THAN 10%. INCREASING TEMPERATURE AND RAIN ON FRESH
SNOWPACK IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF FOG THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. LINGERING SHOWERS MAY TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW
OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES AGAIN COOL, BUT ANY REMAINING MOISTURE
WILL BE FLEETING AS THE TROUGH EXITS EAST.
GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL MAX OUT AROUND 35 MPH FOR
MOST OF THE AREA, NEAR 40 AT TIMES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
HIGHEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY, WV,
WHICH MAY NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY
FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WHICH IS ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
----------------------------------------------------------------
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER IN THE
FORECAST, THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR EARLY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE, GAINING A FEW DEGREES ON THURSDAY, THEN PUSHING
TO NEAR-NORMAL ON FRIDAY AS HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES (MAINLY RAIN) RETURN THIS WEEKEND
- PATTERN UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK; LOW RAIN
CHANCES AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPS BEST FORECAST
FOR NOW
-------------------------------------------------------------------
LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES GENERALLY AGREE ON INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE CROSSES WITH AN ACCOMPANYING
BROAD SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. SHOWER CHANCES (RAIN) SLOWLY
INCREASE AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE CROSSING COLD
FRONT.
DETAILS BECOME MURKIER EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME SOLUTIONS HOLD ON
TO RIDGING LONGER BY DEVELOPING A CUTOFF UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST
AND SLOWING THE PATTERN DOWN, WHICH WOULD KEEP US A BIT WARMER.
MEANWHILE, OTHERS FEATURE AN UPPER MIDWEST SHORTWAVE KNOCKING
DOWN THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER
COOLDOWN.
FOR NOW, THE FORECAST OF LEAST REGRET APPEARS TO BE CONTINUED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY, ALONG WITH A DROP TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURE, BUT NOT AS COLD AS EARLY THIS WEEK. AT THIS TIME,
ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY-SEASON WINTER WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE IN THE CARDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING AT ALL TERMINALS TO START THE TAF
PERIOD WITH A PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES AS DRIER AIR BRIEFLY ADVECTS
IN, AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING CROSSES THE REGION. EARLY THIS
MORNING MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALOFT ALOFT AHEAD OF ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE.
LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FARTHER IN REGARDS TO WHERE
THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON, SO
HAVE REMOVED PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST FROM PIT AND PORTS
TO THE SOUTH. THOSE LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE VFR THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AND MINIMAL IF ANY PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE DRY LOW
LEVELS EVIDENT IN LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS. LATEST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SHOWS A 0-5% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND A 10-30%
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS TODAY.
NORTH OF KPIT, MVFR CIG CHANCES INCREASE GRADUALLY TO THE
NORTH UP TO 80% FOR FKL/DUJ...LIKEWISE FOR PRECIPITATION,
INCREASING TO A 30% CHANCE ON AVERAGE AT FKL/DUJ LATE THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. IFR CIG CHANCES ARE 20-30% AT THESE SITES AND
NIL KPIT AND SOUTH.
LASTLY, ALTHOUGH A HANDFUL OF SITES ARE REPORTING GUSTS IN THE
METARS, LOOKING AT 5 MINUTE DATA REVEALS THAT MOST OBS ARE NOT
GUSTING AT THIS TIME. WITH THAT HAVE ADDED LLWS TO THE TAFS
UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INCREASE BY MID-MORNING. THIS IS
HORIZONTALLY CONSISTENT WITH AWC GUIDANCE AS WELL. BASED OFF
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THIS MAY ALSO BE THE CASE THIS
EVENING IF SURFACE WINDS BACK OFF.
OUTLOOK...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR MAY TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
DROP, BUT ANY ACCUMULATION WOULD BE MINIMAL. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WILL BE LARGELY VFR ACROSS THE REGION, EXCEPT FOR FKL/DUJ WHERE
FLOW OFF THE LAKES COULD RESULT IN SOME MVFR STRATOCU. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SHOWS A 30% CHANCE UP UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING WHEN A LARGE
CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RACKLEY
NEAR TERM...RACKLEY
SHORT TERM...RACKLEY
LONG TERM...RACKLEY/CL
AVIATION...88
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page