412
FXUS61 KPBZ 121137
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
637 AM EST WED NOV 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN TO THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AND MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURE TO END THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- SNOW, THEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX, WITH A PASSING DISTURBANCE,
FAVORING I-80 AND THE RIDGES.
- GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE
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THOUGH A FEW OCCASIONAL FLURRIES CONTINUE, MEASURABLE SNOWFALL
HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
SHOWS SKIES BEGINNING TO BRIEFLY CLEAR FOR EASTERN OHIO JUST
INTO SW PA, BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A MID-LEVEL DECK
QUICKLY FILLS IN UPSTREAM.
POPS WILL INCREASE AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH AND EVENTUAL WEAK COLD FRONT CROSS THE AREA. CHANCES
REMAIN HIGHEST NORTH OF PITTSBURGH AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR AND IN THE PA RIDGES. GIVEN THERMAL PROFILES, SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN AS SNOW THIS MORNING, MIXING WITH RAIN AS
TEMPERATURES WARM LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ANY ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE, LIMITED TO A FEW TENTHS
AT MOST ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR. PROBABILITIES FOR EVEN 0.5" ARE
LESS THAN 10%. INCREASING TEMPERATURE AND RAIN ON FRESH
SNOWPACK IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF FOG THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. LINGERING SHOWERS MAY TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW
OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES AGAIN COOL, BUT ANY REMAINING MOISTURE
WILL BE FLEETING AS THE TROUGH EXITS EAST.
GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL MAX OUT AROUND 35 MPH FOR
MOST OF THE AREA, NEAR 40 AT TIMES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
HIGHEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY, WV,
WHICH MAY NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY
FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WHICH IS ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
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BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER IN THE
FORECAST, THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR EARLY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE, GAINING A FEW DEGREES ON THURSDAY, THEN PUSHING
TO NEAR-NORMAL ON FRIDAY AS HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES (MAINLY RAIN) RETURN THIS WEEKEND
- PATTERN UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK; LOW RAIN
CHANCES AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPS BEST FORECAST
FOR NOW
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LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES GENERALLY AGREE ON INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE CROSSES WITH AN ACCOMPANYING
BROAD SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. SHOWER CHANCES (RAIN) SLOWLY
INCREASE AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE CROSSING COLD
FRONT.
DETAILS BECOME MURKIER EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME SOLUTIONS HOLD ON
TO RIDGING LONGER BY DEVELOPING A CUTOFF UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST
AND SLOWING THE PATTERN DOWN, WHICH WOULD KEEP US A BIT WARMER.
MEANWHILE, OTHERS FEATURE AN UPPER MIDWEST SHORTWAVE KNOCKING
DOWN THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER
COOLDOWN.
FOR NOW, THE FORECAST OF LEAST REGRET APPEARS TO BE CONTINUED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY, ALONG WITH A DROP TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURE, BUT NOT AS COLD AS EARLY THIS WEEK. AT THIS TIME,
ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY-SEASON WINTER WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE IN THE CARDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
IT DOES NOT COME AS A SURPRISE THAT VFR PREVAILS AT ALL PORTS
BESIDES FKL/DUJ, THAT FIND THEMSELVES DOWN TO MVFR ALREADY. THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF MVFR CLOUDS WILL REACH DOWN TOWARDS
PIT/AGC/LBE BUT AT THIS TIME VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. DRY LOWER LEVELS LIKELY ALSO PRECLUDE ANY
PRECIPITATION AT AND SOUTH OF THESE PORTS. BVI WILL FIND ITSELF
VERY NEAR THIS LINE AND HAS RETAINED MVFR CIGS AND PRECIPITATION
IN A PROB30 GROUP.
FKL/DUJ LIKELY SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY, FIRST OF
SNOW THEN OF RAIN AS TEMPERATURES RISE. BOTH OF THESE PORTS LOOK
TO SETTLE IN LOW END MVFR OR IFR. IFR CIG CHANCES HAVE RISEN
ACROSS THE NORTH AND NOW THESE CHANCES LOOK TO PEAK NORTH OF 60%
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS A 30-35 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET AROUND 850MB AT THIS TIME
BUT SFC GUSTS HAVE PRECLUDED MENTION OF LLWS AT MOST PORTS
EXCEPT ZZV, WHICH HAS LIGHTER SFC WINDS. SFC GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
TO PICK UP AT ZZV AND CONTINUE AT ALL OTHER PORTS BY 14-15Z AS
WE MIX DEEPER DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. MOST PORTS WILL BE ABLE
TO GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS TODAY.
OUTLOOK...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR MAY TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
DROP, BUT ANY ACCUMULATION WOULD BE MINIMAL. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WILL BE LARGELY VFR ACROSS THE REGION, EXCEPT FOR FKL/DUJ WHERE
FLOW OFF THE LAKES COULD RESULT IN SOME MVFR STRATOCU. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SHOWS A 30% CHANCE UP UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING WHEN A
LARGE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RACKLEY
NEAR TERM...RACKLEY
SHORT TERM...RACKLEY
LONG TERM...RACKLEY/CL
AVIATION...88/AK
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