369
FXUS61 KPBZ 121742
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1242 PM EST WED NOV 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK TROUGH BRINGS A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
IN AND PROMOTES DRY WEATHER TO END THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES
MODERATE. ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND IN THE FORM OF
RAIN AND COULD LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SNOW CHANCES
RISING.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN/SNOW MIX TURNS TO RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH LIGHT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
- GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE
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ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DRAG A SFC
LOW EASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CROSSING THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME. AS TEMPERATURES WARM
AT THE SFC ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGEOVER TO
RAIN SHOWERS, EXCEPT AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE PA RIDGES
WHERE SNOWFALL COULD CONTINUE AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
PROBABILITIES FOR EVEN 0.5" OF SNOWFALL PEAK BETWEEN 30-40% NORTH OF
I-80 AND IN THE PA RIDGES, WHERE SNOWFALL WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT. A
LONG LASTING ACCUMULATION LOOKS RATHER UNLIKELY. LINGERING SHOWERS
MAY TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES COOL, BUT
MOISTURE WILL BE FLEETING AS THE TROUGH EXITS EAST.
GUSTY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH A TIGHTENED SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WESTERLY WINDS CAN GUST UP TO 35 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
GUSTS INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS
UP TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY, WV, WHERE A
WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH 4 PM WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL SETTLE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
TUESDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BUT REMAIN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER 30S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS DRY CONDITIONS
- GUSTY WINDS SUBSIDE SOME
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ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 OR IN THE PA RIDGES SHOULD
COME TO AN END NEAR SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. HEIGHTS RISE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE IS SHUNTED EASTWARD AS A TROUGH
SLIDES THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. AT THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
FROM THE WEST AND RETURNS DRY AND QUIETER WEATHER TO CLOSE THE WORK
WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TOWARDS
NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS PUSHING TOWARDS 50 THURSDAY AND
THEN CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 50S FRIDAY. WINDS CAN REMAIN BREEZY ON
THURSDAY WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 MPH BUT WINDS DON'T REALLY SLACKEN
UNTIL FRIDAY AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SITS MORE SQUARELY ACROSS THE
REGION.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES (MAINLY RAIN) RETURN THIS WEEKEND
- ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH WITH SOME MODEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
- SHOWERY WEATHER WITH NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
-------------------------------------------------------------------
500MB HEIGHTS ARE LIKELY TO PEAK ON SATURDAY (ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURE) AS A RIDGE AXIS CROSSES. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY, WITH FOLLOW-UP COLD
FROPA EXPECTED BY 12Z SUNDAY. ALSO AT THIS TIME, A NEGATIVELY-
TILTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A MOISTURE SURGE
BETWEEN THE FRONTS, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING
AN INCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE APPROACHING TROUGH
WILL HELP TO AMP UP DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, WITH 45-55 KNOTS 0-6KM
VALUES POSSIBLE. ALL OF THIS LEADS TO FIRST RAINDROPS BY
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH PEAK PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL SATURDAY
NIGHT.
LONG-RANGE MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
LOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY, WITH WIND GUSTS BEING
THE MOST LIKELY THREAT. SIMILAR TO RECENT SYSTEMS, IT DOES
APPEAR THAT CAPE COULD BE THE LIMITING FACTOR, WITH ENSEMBLES
HIGHLIGHTING 100 J/KG OR LESS OF AVAILABLE BUOYANCY. TIMING
COULD PLAY INTO THIS AS WELL, AS THE COLD FRONT COULD WAIT UNTIL
AFTER SUNSET TO CROSS. SHEAR/WIND FIELDS WOULD SUPPORT SOME
SEVERE POTENTIAL HOWEVER, AND A SEVERE THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE
IF CAPE MANAGES TO OVERPERFORM EXPECTATIONS. THIS BEARS
MONITORING, AND THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE
CLEAR ONCE THE EVENT ENTERS THE REALM OF CAMS. GUSTY WINDS SEEM
LIKELY INDEPENDENT OF STORMS AS WELL. IN ANY EVENT, THE SPEED OF
THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY KEEP RAIN AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED
AND BELOW THE LEVEL OF CONCERN.
AFTER PEAKING INTO UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES
FALL BACK TO CLIMATOLOGIC LEVELS (UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S) SUNDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT, AND A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE COULD BRING
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES BACK FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. AT LEAST SCATTERED LAKE-ENHANCE, NORTHWEST-FLOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT LEAST SOME OF THIS
COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW, WITH ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING 850MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE -5C TO -7C RANGE.
THE FORECAST REMAINS MURKIER THEREAFTER, AS THE ENSEMBLES
DISAGREE ON HOW STRONG NORTHEAST CONUS TROUGHING BECOMES, AND
HOW QUICKLY TO MOVE IT EAST IN FAVOR OF INCREASING
PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RIDGING. FOR NOW, SLOW TEMPERATURE
MODERATION BACK TO CLIMATOLOGY AND LOW, BUT MENTIONABLE, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE THE BEST COURSE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO SCATTER OUT ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST, WHILE
FKL/DUJ REMAIN LOCKED IN LOWER CLOUDS. VFR PREVAILS AT MOST PORTS
EXCEPT DUJ AND FKL MAY ONLY SEE A BRIEF REPRIEVE. SHOWERS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
LOSING ORGANIZATION AND AREAL COVERAGE. ONCE SHOWERS WIND DOWN AND
CIGS LIFT OUT OF FKL/DUJ OVERNIGHT THEN AREA-WIDE VFR IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WESTERLY WINDS REMAIN RATHER GUSTY ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME WITH
MOST PORTS SEEING GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 KTS. GUSTS WILL SLOWLY WIND
DOWN LATE AS AN INVERSION BUILDS TONIGHT. THIS COULD CREATE A COUPLE
OF HOURS WHERE LLWS CONCERNS COULD ARISE WITH A 30-35 KT LOW-LEVEL
JET AROUND 2 KFT. AT THIS TIME, LLWS HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS THEMSELVES AS THE JET LOOKS TO FRACTURE AND BY THE TIME IT
REINFORCES AND RETURNS THURSDAY, SFC GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP
ONCE AGAIN.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY ERODES WIDESPREAD CLOUDS BUT
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION COULD ALLOW FOR A
SCT TO BKN VFR STRATOCU DECK NEAR 3-5 KFT.
OUTLOOK... THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE LARGELY VFR ACROSS THE
REGION, EXCEPT FOR FKL/DUJ WHERE FLOW OFF THE LAKES COULD RESULT IN
SOME MVFR STRATOCU. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A 30% CHANCE UP UNTIL
FRIDAY MORNING WHEN A LARGE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE BEGINS TO IMPACT THE
REGION.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ514.
SYNOPSIS...CL/AK
NEAR TERM...AK
SHORT TERM...AK
LONG TERM...CL
AVIATION...AK
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