566
FXUS61 KPBZ 130926
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
426 AM EST THU NOV 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AND MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN RETURNS THIS WEEKEND AND MAY
LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT
SNOW.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
- GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE TODAY, DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT
---------------------------------------------------------------
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THIS MORNING AS SKIES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
CLEAR FROM THE WEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TODAY UNDER RISING
HEIGHTS. THIS WILL DRY WEATHER IN THE FORECAST WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY, BUT
MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL LIKELY KEEP STRATOCU
ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
GRADIENT WINDS REMAIN GUSTY TODAY, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS
WEDNESDAY. GUSTS SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE LOW LANDS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURE CONTINUE
----------------------------------------------------------------
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EXTEND UP THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY UNDER CONTINUED RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY AS
850MB FLOW BACKS WESTERLY AND STRONG WARM ADVECTION ENSUES. THIS
WILL KEEP THE DRY AND WARMING TREND GOING WITH LESS BREEZY
CONDITIONS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH
SEASONABLE LEVELS UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
FRIDAY NIGHT, CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING CLOUDS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL KEEP WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTH AND WEST HALF OF THE REGION. LOCATIONS
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OH AND NORTHERN WV WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S, WITH LOCATIONS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH DROP
INTO THE 20S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES (MAINLY RAIN) RETURN THIS WEEKEND
- ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH WITH SOME MODEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
- SHOWERY WEATHER WITH NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
-------------------------------------------------------------------
500MB HEIGHTS ARE LIKELY TO PEAK ON SATURDAY (ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURE) AS A RIDGE AXIS CROSSES. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY, WITH FOLLOW-UP COLD
FROPA EXPECTED BY 12Z SUNDAY. ALSO AT THIS TIME, A NEGATIVELY-
TILTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A MOISTURE SURGE
BETWEEN THE FRONTS, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING
AN INCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE APPROACHING TROUGH
WILL HELP TO AMP UP DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, WITH 45-55 KNOTS 0-6KM
VALUES POSSIBLE. ALL OF THIS LEADS TO FIRST RAINDROPS BY
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH PEAK PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL SATURDAY
NIGHT.
LONG-RANGE MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
LOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY, WITH WIND GUSTS BEING
THE MOST LIKELY THREAT. SIMILAR TO RECENT SYSTEMS, IT DOES
APPEAR THAT CAPE COULD BE THE LIMITING FACTOR, WITH ENSEMBLES
HIGHLIGHTING 100 J/KG OR LESS OF AVAILABLE BUOYANCY. TIMING
COULD PLAY INTO THIS AS WELL, AS THE COLD FRONT COULD WAIT UNTIL
AFTER SUNSET TO CROSS. SHEAR/WIND FIELDS WOULD SUPPORT SOME
SEVERE POTENTIAL HOWEVER, AND A SEVERE THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE
IF CAPE MANAGES TO OVERPERFORM EXPECTATIONS. THIS BEARS
MONITORING, AND THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE
CLEAR ONCE THE EVENT ENTERS THE REALM OF CAMS. GUSTY WINDS SEEM
LIKELY INDEPENDENT OF STORMS AS WELL. IN ANY EVENT, THE SPEED OF
THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY KEEP RAIN AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED
AND BELOW THE LEVEL OF CONCERN.
AFTER PEAKING INTO UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES
FALL BACK TO CLIMATOLOGIC LEVELS (UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S) SUNDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT, AND A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE COULD BRING
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES BACK FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. AT LEAST SCATTERED LAKE-ENHANCE, NORTHWEST-FLOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT LEAST SOME OF THIS
COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW, WITH ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING 850MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE -5C TO -7C RANGE.
THE FORECAST REMAINS MURKIER THEREAFTER, AS THE ENSEMBLES
DISAGREE ON HOW STRONG NORTHEAST CONUS TROUGHING BECOMES, AND
HOW QUICKLY TO MOVE IT EAST IN FAVOR OF INCREASING
PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RIDGING. FOR NOW, SLOW TEMPERATURE
MODERATION BACK TO CLIMATOLOGY AND LOW, BUT MENTIONABLE, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE THE BEST COURSE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION, OUTSIDE OF NORTHWEST PA THIS MORNING WHERE VFR STRATOCU
REMAINS. AT FKL AND DUJ, THE VFR STRATOCU SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, BUT GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SCATTERED
IN NATURE UNDER INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AS RIDGING BUILDS IN
ACROSS THE REGION. FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN BY MID MORNING AS MIXING
INCREASES AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ARE TAPPED AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DEEPENS TO AROUND 4KFT. GUSTS AROUND 20-25KTS CAN BE
EXPECTED.
THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-80 WHICH WOULD IMPACT FKL AND DUJ, BUT C URRENTLY ENSEMBLES
SHOW PROBABILITIES TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS..
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY WILL BE LARGELY VFR ACROSS THE REGION, EXCEPT FOR
FKL/DUJ WHERE FLOW OFF THE LAKES COULD RESULT IN SOME MVFR
STRATOCU. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A 30-40% CHANCE UP THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN
CHANCES AND RESTRICTION POTENTIAL TO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RACKLEY
NEAR TERM...RACKLEY
SHORT TERM...RACKLEY
LONG TERM...RACKLEY/CL
AVIATION...88
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