705
FXUS61 KPBZ 131815
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
115 PM EST THU NOV 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AND MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN RETURNS THIS WEEKEND AND MAY
LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT
SNOW.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
- GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE TODAY, DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT
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DRY AND QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MS AND TN VALLEYS. HEIGHTS RISE
THROUGH THE DAY AND WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RISE ACCORDINGLY BACK
TOWARDS SEASONABLE AVERAGES. MOIST NWERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKES AND
LINGERING MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CAN ALLOW
FOR SOME STRATOCU ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
AS HIGH PRESSURE ENTERS THE REGION, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
TIGHTLY PACKED, ALTHOUGH LESS SO THAN WEDNESDAY. MOST AREAS CAN SEE
GUSTS PEAK NEAR 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH
ISOLATED GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD OVER NIGHT AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SLACKENS, ALLOWING WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. DIMINISHING
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR MORE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN RECENT NIGHTS AND LOW TEMPERATURES CAN
DROP INTO THE 20S FOR MANY AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE PITTSBURGH HEAT
ISLAND.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURE CONTINUE FRIDAY
- RAIN RETURNS BY SATURDAY AS STORM CHANCES LOOM
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HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC IS ANCHORED OVER THE APPALACHIANS BY
SUNRISE FRIDAY AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE. WINDS BACK AT THE SFC
AND 850MB ALLOWING FOR STRONG WAA TO ENSUE. AS SUCH THE DAY REMAINS
DRY AND WE SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPLETE THEIR MARCH BACK TOWARDS
SEASONABLE AVERAGES. CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT TIED TO A CANADIAN LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
CONTINUED WAA AND INCREASING CLOUDS KEEP OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS RATHER
WARM ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST (STAYING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S)
WHILE AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH CAN DROP BACK BELOW 30
DEGREES.
AN ADVANCING LONGWAVE TROUGH SPURS THE AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN LOW
AND IT'S ASSOCIATED FRONTS THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING
(WARM FRONT) AND SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT (COLD FRONT). POPS BEGIN TO
INCREASE BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES.
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND ISOLATED FROM THIS ACTIVITY. POPS
THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN AREA WIDE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THE QUICK MOVING NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM DOESN'T SUPPORT SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL TOTALS AND PROBABILITIES
OF GREATER THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN ARE BETWEEN 20-30%. INCREASING
WAA IN THE WARM SECTOR FAVOR HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY STRIKING 5-
10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ONCE AGAIN LOOKS IMPRESSIVE (BETWEEN 50-60 KTS) BUT
THE LIMITING REAGENT REMAINS CAPE (ENSEMBLES SHOWING MEAN AMOUNTS OF
MUCAPE CLOSE TO 200 J/KG), SIMILAR TO RECENT SYSTEMS. A LACK OF
BUOYANCY COULD PRECLUDE LIGHTING AND FAVOR MORE "POWER SHOWERS" THAT
WE HAVE SEEN SEVERAL TIMES ALREADY THIS FALL. GUSTY WINDS ONCE AGAIN
SEEM LIKELY INDEPENDENT OF STORMS. MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE STORMS, FAVORING A WIND
THREAT AND THIS HAS BEEN MATCHED WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS (LEVEL 1 OF 5) ON SATURDAY FROM SPC. MORE LIGHT WILL BE SHED
ON THIS EVENT AS WE ENTER THE CAM WINDOW AND FURTHER UPDATES TO THIS
FORECAST WILL FOLLOW. POPS BEGIN TO FALL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONT CLEARS THE LAURELS AND MOVES EAST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
- BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
- POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NEAR I-80
EARLY MONDAY
- PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL INCREASES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY;
WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE
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LONG-RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT WIDESPREAD BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH. WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE MET IN
EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY, WHERE MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NEAR
I-80. HOWEVER, THE LIKELIHOOD OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL REMAINS
LOW.
FOR MID-WEEK, CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF LONG-RANGE PATTERNS INDICATES
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS HEIGHTS RISE, TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO TREND NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE. SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MODEL
MEMBERS DEPICT A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMERGING FROM THE ROCKIES AND
TRACKING THROUGH OUR REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WHICH
COULD RETURN THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX DURING THE OVERNIGHT
TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE BROAD TROUGH OVER NEWFOUNDLAND MAY
STEER THIS SYSTEM TO PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL PORTS.
THE ONLY POSSIBLE HICCUP COULD BE LOW-END FOG CHANCES AT
FKL/DUJ EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OUTSIDE OF THE
I-80 CORRIDOR ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. VFR
STRATOCU WILL LIKELY LINGER AT FKL/DUJ THROUGH THE DAY WITH
DAYTIME MIXING.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING AND
LAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH DAYTIME MIXING. MOST PORTS
CAN GUST BETWEEN 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY WILL BE LARGELY VFR ACROSS THE REGION, EXCEPT FOR
FKL/DUJ WHERE FLOW OFF THE LAKES COULD RESULT IN SOME MVFR
STRATOCU. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A 30-40% CHANCE UP THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN
CHANCES AND RESTRICTION POTENTIAL TO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AK
NEAR TERM...AK
SHORT TERM...AK
LONG TERM...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...AK
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