925
FXUS61 KPBZ 140508
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1208 AM EST FRI NOV 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AND MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN RETURNS THIS WEEKEND AND MAY
LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT
SNOW.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES
- GUSTY WIND DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLACKENS, ALLOWING THIS AFTERNOON'S GUSTY WIND TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. THIS, COUPLED WITH CLEAR SKIES,
WILL ALLOW FOR MORE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING THAN WE HAVE
SEEN IN RECENT NIGHTS, THOUGH DON'T EXPECT WIND TO GO ENTIRELY
CALM. WITH DEW POINTS SITTING IN THE MID 20S AND NOT MUCH IF
ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
HAVE A MUCH LOWER FLOOR INTO THE UPPER 20S FOR MANY AREAS
OUTSIDE OF THE PITTSBURGH HEAT ISLAND.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURE CONTINUE FRIDAY
- RAIN RETURNS BY SATURDAY AS STORM CHANCES LOOM
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HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC IS ANCHORED OVER THE APPALACHIANS BY
SUNRISE FRIDAY AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE. WINDS BACK AT THE SFC
AND 850MB ALLOWING FOR STRONG WAA TO ENSUE. AS SUCH THE DAY REMAINS
DRY AND WE SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPLETE THEIR MARCH BACK TOWARDS
SEASONABLE AVERAGES. CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT TIED TO A CANADIAN LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
CONTINUED WAA AND INCREASING CLOUDS KEEP OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS RATHER
WARM ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST (STAYING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S)
WHILE AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH CAN DROP BACK BELOW 30
DEGREES.
AN ADVANCING LONGWAVE TROUGH SPURS THE AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN LOW
AND IT'S ASSOCIATED FRONTS THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING
(WARM FRONT) AND SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT (COLD FRONT). POPS BEGIN TO
INCREASE BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES.
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND ISOLATED FROM THIS ACTIVITY. POPS
THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN AREA WIDE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THE QUICK MOVING NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM DOESN'T SUPPORT SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL TOTALS AND PROBABILITIES
OF GREATER THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN ARE BETWEEN 20-30%. INCREASING
WAA IN THE WARM SECTOR FAVOR HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY STRIKING 5-
10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ONCE AGAIN LOOKS IMPRESSIVE (BETWEEN 50-60 KTS) BUT
THE LIMITING REAGENT REMAINS CAPE (ENSEMBLES SHOWING MEAN AMOUNTS OF
MUCAPE CLOSE TO 200 J/KG), SIMILAR TO RECENT SYSTEMS. A LACK OF
BUOYANCY COULD PRECLUDE LIGHTING AND FAVOR MORE "POWER SHOWERS" THAT
WE HAVE SEEN SEVERAL TIMES ALREADY THIS FALL. GUSTY WINDS ONCE AGAIN
SEEM LIKELY INDEPENDENT OF STORMS. MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE STORMS, FAVORING A WIND
THREAT AND THIS HAS BEEN MATCHED WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS (LEVEL 1 OF 5) ON SATURDAY FROM SPC. MORE LIGHT WILL BE SHED
ON THIS EVENT AS WE ENTER THE CAM WINDOW AND FURTHER UPDATES TO THIS
FORECAST WILL FOLLOW. POPS BEGIN TO FALL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONT CLEARS THE LAURELS AND MOVES EAST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
- BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
- POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NEAR I-80
EARLY MONDAY
- PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL INCREASES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY;
WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE
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LONG-RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT WIDESPREAD BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH. WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE MET IN
EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY, WHERE MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NEAR
I-80. HOWEVER, THE LIKELIHOOD OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL REMAINS
LOW.
FOR MID-WEEK, CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF LONG-RANGE PATTERNS INDICATES
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS HEIGHTS RISE, TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO TREND NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE. SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MODEL
MEMBERS DEPICT A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMERGING FROM THE ROCKIES AND
TRACKING THROUGH OUR REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WHICH
COULD RETURN THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX DURING THE OVERNIGHT
TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE BROAD TROUGH OVER NEWFOUNDLAND MAY
STEER THIS SYSTEM TO PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WIND HAS SLACKENED OVERNIGHT WITH RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT,
AND ALL TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 7 KTS THROUGH DAYBREAK.
THIS WILL ALSO TRANSLATE TO A MUCH LESS BREEZY DAYTIME, WITH
AFTERNOON GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 10-15 KTS FROM THE SW.
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT A MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK WILL ADVECT FROM THE WEST WITH A CROSSING WEAK 700MB
DISTURBANCE AND LAKE MOISTURE ADVECTION IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN PERSISTENT VFR, BUT BKN TO OVC
CEILINGS AROUND 8-10 KFT ARE EXPECTED, WITH MUCH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE NEAR THE SURFACE. CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY, POSSIBLY SCATTERING BRIEFLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
THICKENING AND GRADUALLY LOWERING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCOMING
WARM FRONT. SAID FRONT WILL ALSO INTRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER
CHANCE SOUTH OF PIT BY 12Z SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN CHANCES AND RESTRICTION
POTENTIAL TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. A PASSING WARM FRONT
WILL INTRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED
BY A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ELEVATED WIND GUSTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG A COLD FRONT. LAKE-ENHANCED PRECIP
IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY WITH THE TYPICAL
SCATTERED NATURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AK
NEAR TERM...MLB/AK
SHORT TERM...AK
LONG TERM...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...RACKLEY/MLB
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