844
FXUS66 KPDT 310531
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1031 PM PDT SUN MAR 30 2025
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
AVIATION...06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW POTENTIAL (<30%) FOR MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS IN MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS THAT IMPACT SITES
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO IMPACT SITES
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, WITH IMPACTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AT SITES PDT/ALW/RDM/BDN/PSC, AND RETURN TO SITE DLS
AFTER 15Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z AT
SITES DLS/PDT/ALW WITH VICINITY SHOWERS AT SITE PSC. ALL OTHER
SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
MOSTLY BE LIGHT, LESS THAN 12KTS, THROUGH THE TOMORROW MORNING.
HOWEVER, PASSING SHOWERS THIS EVENING MAY PRODUCE BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO 12-17KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH
8Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12-17KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25KTS
AROUND AND AFTER 18Z AT ALL SITES. LAWHORN/82
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 640 PM PDT SUN MAR 30 2025/
EVENING UPDATE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER MATCH THE
CURRENT SITUATION. RADAR SHOWS A FEW CELLS MOVING ACROSS DESCHUTES
AND CROOK COUNTIES WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE
PRODUCED A FEW STROKES OF LIGHTNING. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
PUSH NORTHEASTWARD, THESE CELLS MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER AND LIGHTNING. OTHERWISE, RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
STEADILY MAKE ITS WAY SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. 90
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 PM PDT SUN MAR 30 2025/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST. THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY BEFORE DECREASING MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MOST AREAS
BECOMING DRY.
THE LOW OFF THE COAST WILL THEN COME ONSHORE IN SOUTHWESTERN
OREGON LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE MOUNTAINS.
QPF TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE 0.50 TO 1.0 INCHES ALONG THE HIGHEST
PORTIONS OF THE OREGON CASCADES AND MUCH LESS LESS ELSEWHERE.
ALONG THE CREST OF THE BLUES AND THE REST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
PERHAPS AROUND 0.25 INCHES AND IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, GENERALLY
LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES, THOUGH SOME COULD GET BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.20
INCHES.
SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY START OUT QUITE HIGH...OVER 5000 FEET,
BUT WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING.
SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN A COUPLE OF INCHES AT
ALONG THE CRESTS OF THE CASCADES AND LESS ELSEWHERE.
QPF MONDAY INTO TUESDAY (MAINLY BEGINNING LATER MONDAY) WILL BE
BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1 INCH IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CREST OF THE OREGON
CASCADES, AROUND 0.50 INCHES ALONG THE CREST OF THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS. MOST LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS WILL GET LESS THAN 0.10
INCHES. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE FROM 2500 FEET TO 3500 FEET BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SNOW AMOUNTS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL BE HIGHER ALONG THE OREGON
CASCADES AND BLUE MOUNTAINS WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG THE
CRESTS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY NEEDED HEADLINES AT A LATER
TIME BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO TIME OF YEAR, WARM GROUND AND
WILL HAVE TO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION AT NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE SOME DIURNAL BREEZES ON TUESDAY IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH
RANGE. NBM PROBABILITIES OF WIND GUSTS >=25 MPH ARE 70 TO 90
PERCENT. NBM PROBABILITIES OF WIND GUSTS >= 39 MPH ARE GENERALLY
LESS THAN 50 PERCENT.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
KEY MESSAGES:
1) LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOW ELEVATION RAIN.
2) LATE WEEK RIDGING WITH DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS.
MODELS ARE IN GREAT ALLIANCE THAT THE RIDGE WILL BE SETTLING JUST
OFF THE COAST WITH THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE ROCKY'S ACROSS IDAHO,
UTAH, AND NEVADA. WRAP AROUND FROM THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
KEEP PRECIP LINGERING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. QPF AMOUNTS ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE LOOKING AT EITHER SNOW OR RAIN THANKS TO THE
NORTHWARD SURFACE WIND PREVENTING AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE ENTERING
THE REGION. NBM IS DISPLAYING UP TO AN ADDITIONAL THREE INCHES OF
MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD (50-70% CONFIDENCE), WITH
A TRACE TO UP TO A HALF INCH IN CENTRAL OR (60-80% CONFIDENCE). QPFS
FOR THE BASIN AND OTHER PARTS OF LOW ELEVATIONS DON'T LEAVE A LOT TO
DISCUSS AS THEY REMAIN TAPERED UP TO 0.05 INCHES.
RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE OF THE SHORTWAVE, INTRODUCING A DRY,
WARMER PATTERN FOR THE PACNW. CLUSTERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
MOST PRECIP WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT 39%
WOULD LIKE TO EXTEND THE PRECIP UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
HARDLY MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN THE TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS WE WILL RECEIVE
THROUGH FRIDAY AND WILL SOLELY BE A DISAGREEMENT IN THE TIMING WHEN
THINGS DRY OUT. MODELS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TERM HAVE TIMING
DISAGREEMENTS WHEN THE RIDGE AXIS WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE REGION,
BUT THE OVERALL PICTURE OF A DRY/WARM WEEKEND REMAIN INTACT OVERALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A WARMER TREND AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND
THANKS TO THE OVERHEAD RIDGING, WITH MOST AREAS RECEIVING HIGH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS WEEKEND WILL CLIMB INTO THE FOLLOWING RANGES:
FRIDAY: MID TO HIGH 50S FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUES AND CENTRAL OR; LOW
TO MID 60S UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN; MID TO HIGH 40S IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
SATURDAY: LOW TO MID 60S FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUES AND CENTRAL OR; MID
TO HIGH 60S UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN; LOW TO MID 50S IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 40 55 35 56 / 90 50 20 20
ALW 42 55 37 55 / 70 60 30 30
PSC 41 60 35 61 / 50 40 10 10
YKM 37 58 33 59 / 90 20 10 10
HRI 40 60 34 60 / 90 50 10 20
ELN 36 54 35 56 / 90 40 10 10
RDM 32 50 29 51 / 60 40 20 30
LGD 37 49 29 49 / 90 90 40 40
GCD 35 49 28 48 / 90 80 40 60
DLS 40 57 36 59 / 100 40 10 20
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...82
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