658
FXUS66 KPDT 102250
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
350 PM PDT TUE JUN 10 2025
UPDATED AVIATION...00Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALL TAF SITES WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS
THROUGH 3-5Z WITH DLS/PDT/RDM SEEING 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS 15-25
KTS. ALL OTHER SITES WILL SEE WINDS BELOW 12 KTS. THERE IS ALSO A
PROB 30 FOR -TSRA FOR RDM/BDN THROUGH 3Z AS THERE ARE SOME TS
BEGINNING TO MOVE NORTH TOWARDS THOSE SITES. BENNESE/90
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 151 PM PDT TUE JUN 10 2025/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...SATELLITE SHOWS
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION, HOWEVER CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE FORMING ON THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA CLOSE TO THE
BEND/REDMOND AND JOHN DAY AREAS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SECLUDED TO CENTRAL OR AND AREAS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUES AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE
SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION, ENOUGH UPLIFT AND MOISTURE
WILL HELP DEVELOP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THESE STORMS CAN BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS
OF UP TO 45 KNOTS. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR DEVELOPING STORMS WILL
BE BETWEEN NOW AND 8PM TONIGHT, SHORTLY BEFORE SUNSET.
WITH THE DOMINANT RIDGING PATTERN NOW BECOMING MORE TROUGH
FOCUSED, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN FROM THE TRIPLE DIGITS WE SAW
TODAY AND YESTERDAY TO THE MID-UPPER 80S BY THURSDAY IN MUCH OF
THE BASIN (>85% CHANCE) AND OTHER HIGHER ELEVATED POPULATION
CENTERS. NOT SEEING ANYTHING TO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL HEAT
ADVISORIES ARE NEEDED IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE HEAT IMPACT LEVEL
DROPS TO 1-2, THEN MOSTLY TO 1 BY THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN
REMAINS MOSTLY TROUGH ORIENTED, THE BASIN AND THE KITTITAS REMAIN
FAIRLY DRY FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE SHORT TERM DUE TO LACK OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM.
WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE
DALLES/MOUNTAIN GAPS WITH DESI ADVERTISING >90% CHANCE FOR WIND
GUSTS GREATER THAN 45 MPH. NOT TOO CONFIDENT ABOUT ISSUING WIND
ADVISORY AS THE AREA DOESN'T SEEM TO BE LARGE ENOUGH BUT WILL KEEP
AN EYE IF WINDS IN THIS AREA TREND ONE WAY OR ANOTHER OR IF THE
AREA OF IMPACT INCREASES BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS REMAIN
FAIRLY CONFIDENT FRIDAY GOING INTO SATURDAY THAT A TROUGH WILL SIT
JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST AND KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. HOWEVER, MODELS GREATLY DIVERGE AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ON HOW IT WANTS
TO HANDLE THE INCOMING TROUGH AND ITS STRENGTH. A WEAKER TROUGH
SIGNIFIES THAT THE AREA WILL SEE MUCH LESS PRECIPITATION WHILE
THE TRUTH REMAINS FOR THE OPPOSITE. ABOUT 22% OF CLUSTER MEMBERS
WANT TO BRING A STRONGER TROUGH AND BRING LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE
REGION WITH HINTS OF LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS THE BLUES. ONE
THING REMAINS CERTAIN IS THAT WE'RE NOT EXPECTING A SYSTEM WITH
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS REGARDING QPF AMOUNT (50-70% CHANCE) AS
MOISTURE DOESN'T SEEM SIGNIFICANT EVEN WITH THE MOST "AGGRESSIVE"
SOLUTIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 62 90 55 84 / 10 10 0 0
ALW 67 90 60 83 / 0 10 0 0
PSC 61 94 57 88 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 62 94 57 86 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 62 92 57 87 / 0 10 0 0
ELN 62 88 57 80 / 0 0 0 0
RDM 51 86 45 80 / 20 0 0 0
LGD 61 85 52 81 / 10 20 0 10
GCD 59 86 50 83 / 40 30 10 10
DLS 61 84 57 79 / 0 0 0 0
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ691.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ041-044-507-508-
510.
WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ690-691.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ024-026>029.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...90
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