365
FXUS66 KPDT 120528
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1028 PM PDT WED JUN 11 2025
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
AVIATION...06Z TAFS
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. AREA WILD FIRES HAVE PRODUCED SMOKE IMPACTS AT SITES
DLS/PDT/ALW TODAY, WITH SMOKE IMPACTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD AT THESE SITES, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW (20-30%) ON
WHETHER MVFR OR LESS VSBY WILL DEVELOP. WINDS HAVE BECOME MOSTLY
LIGHT, 12KTS OR LESS, AT NEARLY ALL SITES TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST 18-21Z, WHERE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15KTS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25KTS. ONLY EXCEPTION IS SITE DLS, WHERE
WINDS 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30KTS WILL PERSIST, WITH STRONGEST
WINDS REDEVELOPING AFTER 19Z. LAWHORN/82
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 112 PM PDT WED JUN 11 2025/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
CURRENT RADAR
SHOWS LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS
PUSHED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
IDAHO/MONTANA REGION AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT AND WILL STAY SO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS A LACK
OF MOIST AIR PREVENTS ANY PRECIP TO FORM. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
BREEZY ACROSS THE KITTITAS AND THE MOUNTAIN GAPS NEAR THE GORGE,
WITH SOME AREAS ANTICIPATING UP TO 45 KNOTS IN GUST. A WIND
ADVISORY HASN'T BEEN ISSUED DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LACK OF
CONFIDENCE AND SUBSTANTIAL COVERAGE AREA TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.
WILL KEEP AN EYE IF TRENDS SHOW A MORE IMPACTFUL SCENARIO OR IF
THE HIGH WINDS DO NOT COME INTO FRUITION. ON THE TEMPERATURE SIDE
OF THINGS, WE ARE STILL COOLING OFF FROM THE MINOR HEAT WAVE WE
EXPERIENCED FROM EARLIER THIS WEEK (>90% CHANCE). TEMPS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S IN MANY PLACES ACROSS THE
BASIN AND PARTS OF ELEVATED POPULATED AREAS, BUT THE TREND WILL
CONTINUE TO GO DOWN AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. BY FRIDAY,
MOST HIGHS IN THE BASIN WILL BE TAPERED DOWN TO THE LOW TO MID 80S
WITH UPPER 70S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. STILL EXPECT SOME BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN, MOUNTAIN GAPS, AND THE KITTITAS
AS THE TROUGH THAT ENTERED THE REGION SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST.
THIS WILL ALSO HELP RECOVER SOME MIN RH VALUES, WHICH TRIGGERED
RED FLAG WARNINGS IN THE KITTITAS FROM EARLIER THIS WEEK THAT IS
STILL IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM TODAY ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE LONG TERM STILL
REMAINS LOW ON THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE SCALE. EVENTUALLY, THE
TROUGH WILL PUSH ONSHORE SOMETIME OVER THE WEEKEND. THE BIG
QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS THE AMPLITUDE AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH
WHEN IT CROSSES THE REGION. GFS ENSEMBLES WANT TO PAINT THE TROUGH
WEAKER COMPARED TO THE EURO ENSEMBLES. MEMBERS AND CLUSTERS ARE
SPLIT AS WELL HOW TO PAINT THE LONG TERM WITH 37% OF MEMBERS
TAKING THE GFS ROUTE AND KEEP THE REGION MOSTLY DRY, WHILE THE
REMAINING MEMBERS WANT TO GIVE LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA WITH
SOME HINTS AT LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS THE BLUES. THIS IS
SOMEWHAT UNCHANGED YESTERDAY AND MANY IMPACTS WILL BE DETERMINED
BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH. REGARDLESS, EVEN THE MOST
"AGGRESSIVE" SOLUTIONS DO NOT BRING MUCH IMPACTFUL QPF TO THE
AREA, IT'S JUST A MATTER THAT THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE SYNOPTIC
SET-UP LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY OF THE SURFACE ENVIRONMENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 54 84 53 80 / 0 0 0 10
ALW 60 83 57 80 / 0 0 10 10
PSC 56 88 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 57 86 51 82 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 56 88 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 56 80 51 78 / 0 0 0 0
RDM 44 80 42 76 / 0 0 0 0
LGD 51 80 50 77 / 10 0 10 10
GCD 49 82 49 80 / 10 0 10 10
DLS 55 80 54 77 / 0 0 0 0
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...82
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