454
FXUS66 KPDT 121750
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1050 AM PDT THU JUN 12 2025
AVIATION...18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WHILE SMOKE FROM AREA WILDFIRES MAY IMPACT
DLS/PDT/ALW/PSC, CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF VSBY REDUCTIONS
IS TOO LOW (<30%) TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC SHOULD FACILITATE
INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUD AND A LOW CHANCE (5-30%) OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWER CHANCES ARE VERY LOW
AT RDM/BDN/PSC (5-14%) AND LOW (20-30%) AT PDT/ALW. LIGHTNING
CHANCES ARE VERY LOW (10% OR LESS).
WINDS WILL BE DIURNALLY AND GRADIENT-DRIVEN, STRONGEST IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT MOST SITES. PLUNKETT/86
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 112 PM PDT WED JUN 11 2025/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...CURRENT RADAR SHOWS
LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS PUSHED
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
IDAHO/MONTANA REGION AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT AND WILL STAY SO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS A LACK
OF MOIST AIR PREVENTS ANY PRECIP TO FORM. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
BREEZY ACROSS THE KITTITAS AND THE MOUNTAIN GAPS NEAR THE GORGE,
WITH SOME AREAS ANTICIPATING UP TO 45 KNOTS IN GUST. A WIND
ADVISORY HASN'T BEEN ISSUED DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LACK OF
CONFIDENCE AND SUBSTANTIAL COVERAGE AREA TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.
WILL KEEP AN EYE IF TRENDS SHOW A MORE IMPACTFUL SCENARIO OR IF
THE HIGH WINDS DO NOT COME INTO FRUITION. ON THE TEMPERATURE SIDE
OF THINGS, WE ARE STILL COOLING OFF FROM THE MINOR HEAT WAVE WE
EXPERIENCED FROM EARLIER THIS WEEK (>90% CHANCE). TEMPS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S IN MANY PLACES ACROSS THE
BASIN AND PARTS OF ELEVATED POPULATED AREAS, BUT THE TREND WILL
CONTINUE TO GO DOWN AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. BY FRIDAY,
MOST HIGHS IN THE BASIN WILL BE TAPERED DOWN TO THE LOW TO MID 80S
WITH UPPER 70S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. STILL EXPECT SOME BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN, MOUNTAIN GAPS, AND THE KITTITAS
AS THE TROUGH THAT ENTERED THE REGION SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST.
THIS WILL ALSO HELP RECOVER SOME MIN RH VALUES, WHICH TRIGGERED
RED FLAG WARNINGS IN THE KITTITAS FROM EARLIER THIS WEEK THAT IS
STILL IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM TODAY ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LONG TERM STILL
REMAINS LOW ON THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE SCALE. EVENTUALLY, THE
TROUGH WILL PUSH ONSHORE SOMETIME OVER THE WEEKEND. THE BIG
QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS THE AMPLITUDE AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH
WHEN IT CROSSES THE REGION. GFS ENSEMBLES WANT TO PAINT THE
TROUGH WEAKER COMPARED TO THE EURO ENSEMBLES. MEMBERS AND CLUSTERS
ARE SPLIT AS WELL HOW TO PAINT THE LONG TERM WITH 37% OF MEMBERS
TAKING THE GFS ROUTE AND KEEP THE REGION MOSTLY DRY, WHILE THE
REMAINING MEMBERS WANT TO GIVE LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA WITH
SOME HINTS AT LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS THE BLUES. THIS IS
SOMEWHAT UNCHANGED YESTERDAY AND MANY IMPACTS WILL BE DETERMINED
BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH. REGARDLESS, EVEN THE MOST
"AGGRESSIVE" SOLUTIONS DO NOT BRING MUCH IMPACTFUL QPF TO THE
AREA, IT'S JUST A MATTER THAT THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE SYNOPTIC SET-
UP LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY OF THE SURFACE ENVIRONMENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 85 55 80 49 / 0 10 0 0
ALW 84 59 80 53 / 0 10 0 0
PSC 89 55 84 53 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 86 52 81 50 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 87 56 83 52 / 0 10 0 0
ELN 81 51 77 50 / 0 0 0 0
RDM 80 42 75 40 / 0 10 0 0
LGD 80 52 76 46 / 0 20 10 10
GCD 82 49 79 45 / 0 20 10 0
DLS 81 54 77 52 / 0 0 0 0
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...86
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page