337
FXUS66 KPDT 131744
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1044 AM PDT FRI JUN 13 2025
UPDATED FOR AVIATION
AVIATION
18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER, DUE TO AREA WILDFIRES, THERE COULD BE SOME SMOKE IMPACTS
AT DLS/PDT/ALW/PSC WHICH COULD LOWER VSBYS OR CIGS THROUGH THE
PERIOD, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE INDIVIDUAL
FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.
BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES EXCEPT PSC THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEFORE DECREASING. DLS WILL GUST 25 TO
30 KTS, WHILE THE OTHER LOCATIONS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KTS.
LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT, ALL SITES WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10
KTS OR LESS. DLS WILL GUST AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO AROUND
20 KTS.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1042 PM PDT THU JUN 12 2025/
AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AREA WILDFIRES MAY PRESENT SOME SMOKE IMPACTS TO SITES
DLS/PDT/ALW/PSC THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING, ALLOWING FOR A LOW
CHANCE OF RAIN (20-30%) ACROSS KPDT/KALW WITH VERY LOW CHANCES
(5-10%) FOR KPSC. BREEZY WINDS 12-20KTS WITH GUSTS 20-30KTS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT SITE DLS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 12-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS AT SITES RDM/BDN BETWEEN
22Z-03Z. OTHERWISE, LIGHT WINDS, 12KTS OR LESS, WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AT MOST SITES. LAWHORN/82
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 158 PM PDT THU JUN 12 2025/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE PRESENT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE COLUMBIA PLATEAU REGION THIS AFTERNOON, DRIVEN BY CROSS-
CASCADE PRESSURE AND TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES OF ROUGHLY 5-9 MB AND
15-25 DEGREES, RESPECTIVELY. COUPLED WITH RHS IN THE TEENS TO
TWENTIES, THIS IS DRIVING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ANY RED FLAG WARNINGS DUE TO
VERY LIMITED COVERAGE OF OVERLAPPING WIND/RH CONDITIONS WITHIN
DECLARED FIRE WEATHER ZONES.
WINDS THROUGH THE KITTITAS VALLEY HAVE BEEN JUST BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA (SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH OR GUSTS OF 45 MPH).
CONFIDENCE IN REACHING CRITERIA IS MEDIUM (40-60%) SO HAVE HELD
OFF ON ISSUING ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS.
LOOKING AHEAD, ENSEMBLE NWP IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A
COUPLE SHORTWAVES VISIBLE OFFSHORE IN THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE
ONSHORE OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FORCING FROM THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE MAY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
OVERNIGHT AND GENERATE ELEVATED SHOWERS ALONG A LINE FROM CENTRAL
OREGON TO SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. CONFIDENCE IN LIGHTNING IS LOW
(10% OR LESS) GIVEN MEAGER CAPE PROFILES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE (15%) OF
THUNDER FROM CENTRAL OREGON EAST THROUGH THE BLUE MOUNTAINS.
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED (300 J/KG OR LESS) IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS,
BUT FORCING FROM THE SECOND SHORTWAVE COUPLED WITH NEGATIVE MID-
LEVEL (700-500 MB) THETA-E LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENTLY MOIST MID
LEVELS MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF THUNDER SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
AFOREMENTIONED REGION IS MEDIUM (50%), LOWER THAN AVERAGE.
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
AGAIN BE PRESENT FRIDAY, ALSO IN TANDEM WITH LOW RHS. HOWEVER,
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S SHOULD KEEP RHS JUST
HIGH ENOUGH TO AVOID RED FLAG CONDITIONS. WILL NOTE ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE COLUMBIA PLATEAU AGAIN.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
PLUNKETT/86
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ENSEMBLE NWP SUGGESTS
SOME FORM OF A TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH ALL
CLUSTERS OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATING SOME FLAVOR OF A
SHORTWAVE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HAVE HELD OFF INTRODUCING
THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AT THIS TIME DUE
TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE (40%) IN ALL INGREDIENTS NECESSARY FOR
CONVECTION.
LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS SHOW A
MORE ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT WITH ABOVE-NORMAL 500-MB HEIGHTS TO OUR
SOUTH AND BELOW-NORMAL 500-MB HEIGHTS TO OUR NORTH. WESTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS ARE EXPECTED, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE (15-50%) OF SHOWERS ALONG THE CASCADES. PLUNKETT/86
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 80 49 82 52 / 10 10 0 0
ALW 80 53 80 56 / 20 10 0 0
PSC 83 50 84 52 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 81 49 82 52 / 10 0 0 0
HRI 83 49 84 53 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 77 49 80 51 / 0 0 0 0
RDM 74 37 79 44 / 20 0 0 0
LGD 75 46 79 50 / 20 20 0 0
GCD 77 43 81 50 / 20 10 0 0
DLS 76 49 81 53 / 0 0 0 0
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...77
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