181
FXUS66 KPDT 012247
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
347 PM PDT TUE JUL 1 2025
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE PACNW WILL BE IN BETWEEN
THE RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND THE CUTOFF LOW MOVING ACROSS
CALIFORNIA. THE HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
BASIN, GORGE, YAKIMA/KITTITAS VALLEYS, SIMCOE HIGHLANDS AND NORTH
CENTRAL OREGON, GIVEN THE UPPER RIDGE KEEPING OUR TODAY'S
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 100S FOR THESE AREAS. THE REMAINING FORECAST
AREA WILL BE IN THE 90S, THOUGH RHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AND WITH THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND KITTITAS
VALLEY BEING DRIER AND WARMER THAN OTHER LOCATIONS, THIS WILL
ELEVATE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS FOR THOSE SPECIFIC AREAS AS WELL
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH ELEVATED CAPE VALUES (>500 J/KG), PWATS
OF 0.80-1 INCHES AND LOW LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.0 C/KM, WE ARE ALSO
LOOKING AT THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH
ABUNDANT LIGHTNING OVER CENTRAL OR, JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS, AND JOHN DAY
BASIN, THANKS TO THE UPSTREAM INTENSIFICATION INFLUENCED FROM THE
CUTOFF LOW. THIS ALLOWS THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONE OR700 THROUGH
THE EVENING AS WELL DUE TO ABUNDANT LIGHTNING FROM THESE STORMS. IN
ADDITION TO THAT, BREEZY OUTFLOW WINDS (15-25 MPH) WILL BE INDUCED
ACROSS THE CASCADE GAPS FROM THE STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A 30-60% PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING TO 30-
35 MPH AROUND THE GORGE AND KITTITAS VALLEY. WITH PERSISTENT WARM
TEMPS (<90 DEGREES) AND LOW RHS (<20%), RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY FROM 2PM TO 9PM PDT FOR THE COLUMBIA BASIN.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY LATE
MORNING INTO EVENING WITH THE CAMS SHOWING CAPE VALUES BECOMING
SLIGHTLY MODEST (500-800 J/KG) ALONG WITH DECREASED PWATS (<0.75
INCHES). EVEN THOUGH THE MOISTURE LEVEL REMAINS LOW, DRY LIGHTNING
CAN BE STILL BE THREATENING TO POTENTIAL NEW OR ONGOING FIRES.
HOWEVER, THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE FURTHER EASTWARD OUT OF OUR AREA
BY TOMORROW NIGHT. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW ACROSS THE CASCADE GAPS FROM THE
STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. THE RAW ENSEMBLES SUGGEST
A 30-50% PROB FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING TO 40 MPH OVER THE GORGE AND
KITTITAS VALLEY. WINDS WILL BEGIN DECREASING LATER IN THE EVENING.
THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET UNTIL EVENING SHOWERS
ARRIVE. TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE TO THE 70S AND 80S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH RHS GRADUALLY RECOVER A BIT TO THE 20S. HOWEVER,
PORTIONS OF THE YAKIMA VALLEY, NORTH CENTRAL OR, AND UPPER PART OF
THE LOWER BASIN MAY HAVE POCKETS OF LOW RHS IN THE TEENS. BUT, NO
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL BE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THE
CASCADE GAPS WILL HAVE BREEZY WINDS AT 15-25 MPH WITH A 30-40% PROB
FOR GUSTS TO REACH 30 MPH AT KITTITAS VALLEY. FEASTER/97
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE
FRIDAY LATE MORNING INTO EVENING AT THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES (<30%) OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK INSTABILITY
(300-800 J/KG) AND LOW MOISTURE LEVEL (<0.10 INCHES) MAY INHIBIT THE
STORMS FROM BECOMING SEVERE, BUT CG LIGHTNING COULD BE THE MAIN
THREAT. LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO NIGHT, PRECIP ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE GORGE WILL BE GUSTING AT 25-35 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON, THE REMAINING LOCATIONS WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS WITH
OCCASIONAL BREEZES. SATURDAY COULD HAVE MORNING SHOWERS OVER THE
WALLOWAS BUT, CHANCES ARE LOW (<20%). STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ONWARDS, THE WEATHER WILL BE WARM AND DRY WITH SLIGHT BREEZY WINDS.
FEASTER/97
AVIATION...18Z TAFS (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)
VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. KRDM/KBDN MAY HAVE LIGHT SHOWERS
AND SUSTAINED WINDS OF 12-20KTS WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20KTS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES (30-50%) FOR
ABUNDANT LIGHTNING. GUSTY WINDS FOR KDLS WILL DEVELOP AT 20-30KTS
THROUGHOUT TODAY STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. OTHERWISE, WINDS
WILL BE 12KTS OR LESS FOR THE REST OF THE SITES. FEASTER/97
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 66 93 58 87 / 10 20 10 0
ALW 70 93 62 86 / 10 20 10 0
PSC 67 96 59 89 / 0 10 0 0
YKM 66 94 57 87 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 69 96 60 89 / 10 10 0 0
ELN 65 88 57 82 / 0 0 0 0
RDM 56 88 46 82 / 30 10 0 0
LGD 63 90 54 84 / 10 20 20 10
GCD 60 91 52 86 / 20 20 20 10
DLS 66 86 60 83 / 0 0 0 0
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ041-044-507-508-
510.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ691.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ700.
WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ024-026>029-521.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR WAZ690-691.
SHORT TERM...97
LONG TERM....97
AVIATION...97
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