236
FXUS66 KPDT 012351
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
451 PM PDT TUE JUL 1 2025
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE PACNW WILL BE IN
BETWEEN THE RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND THE CUTOFF LOW MOVING ACROSS
CALIFORNIA. THE HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
THE BASIN, GORGE, YAKIMA/KITTITAS VALLEYS, SIMCOE HIGHLANDS AND
NORTH CENTRAL OREGON, GIVEN THE UPPER RIDGE KEEPING OUR TODAY'S
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 100S FOR THESE AREAS. THE REMAINING
FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE 90S, THOUGH RHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
TEENS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AND WITH THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND
KITTITAS VALLEY BEING DRIER AND WARMER THAN OTHER LOCATIONS, THIS
WILL ELEVATE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS FOR THOSE SPECIFIC AREAS AS
WELL HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH ELEVATED CAPE VALUES (>500
J/KG), PWATS OF 0.80-1 INCHES AND LOW LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.0 C/KM,
WE ARE ALSO LOOKING AT THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING WITH ABUNDANT LIGHTNING OVER CENTRAL OR, JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS, AND JOHN DAY BASIN, THANKS TO THE UPSTREAM
INTENSIFICATION INFLUENCED FROM THE CUTOFF LOW. THIS ALLOWS THE
RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONE OR700 THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL DUE TO
ABUNDANT LIGHTNING FROM THESE STORMS. IN ADDITION TO THAT, BREEZY
OUTFLOW WINDS (15-25 MPH) WILL BE INDUCED ACROSS THE CASCADE GAPS
FROM THE STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A
30-60% PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING TO 30- 35 MPH AROUND
THE GORGE AND KITTITAS VALLEY. WITH PERSISTENT WARM TEMPS (<90
DEGREES) AND LOW RHS (<20%), RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
WEDNESDAY FROM 2PM TO 9PM PDT FOR THE COLUMBIA BASIN.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY
LATE MORNING INTO EVENING WITH THE CAMS SHOWING CAPE VALUES
BECOMING SLIGHTLY MODEST (500-800 J/KG) ALONG WITH DECREASED PWATS
(<0.75 INCHES). EVEN THOUGH THE MOISTURE LEVEL REMAINS LOW, DRY
LIGHTNING CAN BE STILL BE THREATENING TO POTENTIAL NEW OR ONGOING
FIRES. HOWEVER, THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE FURTHER EASTWARD OUT OF
OUR AREA BY TOMORROW NIGHT. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW ACROSS THE CASCADE GAPS FROM
THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. THE RAW ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST A 30-50% PROB FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING TO 40 MPH OVER THE GORGE
AND KITTITAS VALLEY. WINDS WILL BEGIN DECREASING LATER IN THE
EVENING.
THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET UNTIL EVENING SHOWERS
ARRIVE. TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE TO THE 70S AND 80S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH RHS GRADUALLY RECOVER A BIT TO THE 20S.
HOWEVER, PORTIONS OF THE YAKIMA VALLEY, NORTH CENTRAL OR, AND
UPPER PART OF THE LOWER BASIN MAY HAVE POCKETS OF LOW RHS IN THE
TEENS. BUT, NO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL BE ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME. THE CASCADE GAPS WILL HAVE BREEZY WINDS AT 15-25 MPH
WITH A 30-40% PROB FOR GUSTS TO REACH 30 MPH AT KITTITAS VALLEY.
FEASTER/97
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE
FRIDAY LATE MORNING INTO EVENING AT THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES (<30%) OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK INSTABILITY
(300-800 J/KG) AND LOW MOISTURE LEVEL (<0.10 INCHES) MAY INHIBIT
THE STORMS FROM BECOMING SEVERE, BUT CG LIGHTNING COULD BE THE
MAIN THREAT. LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO NIGHT, PRECIP ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE GORGE WILL BE GUSTING AT
25-35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON, THE REMAINING LOCATIONS WILL HAVE
LIGHT WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL BREEZES. SATURDAY COULD HAVE MORNING
SHOWERS OVER THE WALLOWAS BUT, CHANCES ARE LOW (<20%). STARTING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ONWARDS, THE WEATHER WILL BE WARM AND DRY WITH
SLIGHT BREEZY WINDS. FEASTER/97
AVIATION...00Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT
FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE VALID PERIOD. THE
NOTABLE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KRDM/KBDN THROUGH ROUGHLY 04Z DUE TO
ONGOING VCTS. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP SHOULD A HEAVIER
SHOWER OR TS TRACK OVERHEAD; NEARBY OBSERVATIONS AT KS21 SUGGEST
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE MORE INTENSE
THUNDERSTORMS. MOREOVER, GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH
THESE CELLS; SO FAR, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SUSTAINED
OUTFLOW OF 15-30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30-45 MPH.
LOOKING AHEAD TO TONIGHT, CONFIDENCE IS LOW (<30%) IN ELEVATED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER PSC/ALW/PDT/DLS, SO HAVE EXCLUDED MENTION
IN THE TAF. OTHERWISE, WESTERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP LATER
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. PLUNKETT/86
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 66 93 58 87 / 10 20 10 0
ALW 70 93 62 86 / 10 20 10 0
PSC 67 96 59 89 / 0 10 0 0
YKM 66 94 57 87 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 69 96 60 89 / 10 10 0 0
ELN 65 88 57 82 / 0 0 0 0
RDM 56 88 46 82 / 30 10 0 0
LGD 63 90 54 84 / 10 20 20 10
GCD 60 91 52 86 / 20 20 20 10
DLS 66 86 60 83 / 0 0 0 0
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ041-044-507-508-
510.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ691.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ700.
WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ024-026>029-521.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR WAZ690-691.
SHORT TERM...97
LONG TERM....97
AVIATION...86
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