093
FXUS66 KPDT 022302
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
402 PM PDT WED JUL 2 2025
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH THE RIDGE UP NORTH MOVING
FURTHER EASTWARD, THE PACNW WILL ENTER A TROUGHING PATTERN THROUGH
THIS TERM. TODAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S AND 90S
WITH RHS REMAINING IN THE TEENS. DUE TO THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING RH VALUES LOWERING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS FOR COLUMBIA BASIN, KITTITAS VALLEY, AND CENTRAL
OR, A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING
FOR THOSE AREAS. IN ADDITION TO THAT, THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. THE
CAMS HAVE CAPE VALUES SLIGHTLY MODEST (500-800 J/KG) WITH
DECREASED PWATS (<0.75 INCHES). GIVEN THE LOW MOISTURE LEVEL, THE
SEVERITY OF THESE STORMS MAY NOT BE VERY HIGH BUT, SLIGHTLY
MODERATE ENOUGH TO INDUCE CG LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL BASED ON
CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY. OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ALSO
BECOME BREEZY AS WELL (50% CONFIDENCE). CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR
THE WINDS WITH THE DRY MICROBURST PARAMETERS SHOWING AN INVERTED-V
SOUNDING, DOWNDRAFT CAPE (DCAPE) ABOVE 1000 AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
(>8.0 C/KM). BY TONIGHT, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN MOVING
OUT OF OUR AREA, THOUGH MAY LEAVE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND.
THE CASCADE GAPS WILL CONTINUE HAVING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS FROM THE STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. THERE IS A
30-50% PROB FOR GUSTS REACHING TO 45 MPH OR HIGHER OVER THE GORGE
AND KITTITAS VALLEY. WINDS HAVE BEEN CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR KITTITAS VALLEY SINCE THE GUSTS ARE BORDERLINE
BETWEEN 35-45 MPH. WINDS WILL START DECREASING LATER ON THIS
EVENING.
TOMORROW WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
EVENING SHOWERS ARRIVE ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES (<30%) OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY
IS THERE BUT CAPE VALUES REMAINS MODEST (UNDER 800 J/KG) INCLUDING
LOW MOISTURE, SO CHANCES ON SEVERITY WILL BE UNLIKELY AS WELL. LIGHT
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND VALLEY ZONES
FRIDAY EVENING, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW (<15%) AT THIS TIME GIVEN
THE LATEST HREF AND OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWING LIMITED SPREAD OF PRECIP.
TEMPERATURES WILL DECLINE TO THE 70S AND 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. RHS WILL GRADUALLY RECOVER A BIT TO THE 20S WITH PORTIONS OF
THE YAKIMA VALLEY, NORTH CENTRAL OR, AND UPPER PART OF THE LOWER
BASIN HAVING POCKETS OF RHS IN THE TEENS FOR TOMORROW, BUT WILL
IMPROVE FRIDAY. BREEZY WINDS AT 15-25 MPH CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
CASCADE GAPS WITH A 40% PROB FOR GUSTS TO REACH 30 MPH AT THE GORGE
AND KITTITAS VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL THEN MOVE TO THE WALLOWAS, BUT MOSTLY OUT OF OUR AREA WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN. CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS MIGHT NOT BE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. FEASTER/97
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THIS LONG TERM IS
CHARACTERIZED BY LONG-LASTING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL STEADILY RETURN TO THE 80S AND HIGHER INTO NEXT WEEK WITH RHS
DROPPING AGAIN TO THE 20S AND TEENS. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
OUR WARMEST AND DRIEST DAYS OF THIS TERM WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 100S
AROUND THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND VALLEY ZONES, LEAVING EVERYWHERE ELSE
IN THE HIGH 90S. MODERATE HEATRISK WILL START OFF MONDAY OVER PORTIONS
OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN BEFORE EXTENDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR HEATRISK OVER THE
COLUMBIA BASIN, WHICH COULD WARRANT HEAT ADVISORIES. WINDS WILL
BE RELATIVELY LIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH OCCASIONAL BREEZES AT
THE CASCADE GAPS. FEASTER/97
AVIATION...00Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE IN SMOKE REDUCING VSBYS AT PDT/ALW DUE TO A FIRE NEAR
HRI IS LOW (<30%). OTHERWISE, WIDESPREAD BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL
DECREASE IN MAGNITUDE OVERNIGHT. PLUNKETT/86
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 57 86 59 80 / 0 0 0 10
ALW 60 86 62 79 / 0 0 0 10
PSC 58 89 59 83 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 56 87 58 84 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 58 89 59 82 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 55 84 57 83 / 0 0 0 0
RDM 45 83 48 73 / 0 0 10 10
LGD 53 84 57 77 / 20 0 10 30
GCD 51 87 54 79 / 20 0 20 40
DLS 58 85 59 80 / 0 0 0 10
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ691-700-703.
WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ690-691.
SHORT TERM...97
LONG TERM....97
AVIATION...86
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