913
FXUS66 KPDT 030452
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
952 PM PDT WED JUL 2 2025
UPDATE
WINDS HAVE DECREASED ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DO SO. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED THAT ALL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...IN IDAHO
AND SHOULD REMAIN THERE BEFORE MOVING FURTHER AWAY OR DISSIPATING.
WITH WINDS DECREASING, AND TEMPERATURES ALSO DECREASING,
HUMIDITIES WILL SLOWLY RISE. THEREFORE, THE RED FLAG WARNING WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. ALSO, THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY
WAS CANCELLED EARLY AS WINDS, WHILE BREEZY HAVE DROPPED BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
AVIATION
06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE 10
KTS OR LESS EVERYWHERE BY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON TO AROUND 25 KTS AT DLS AND TO AROUND
20 KTS AT PDT AND ALW. ALL OTHER SITES SHOULD BE 10 KTS OR LESS.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 613 PM PDT WED JUL 2 2025/
UPDATE...NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BOUNCED AROUND ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH THE KITTITAS VALLEY FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE NEAR THEIR PEAK, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (80%)
THAT CRITERIA WILL BE PERIODICALLY MET THROUGH MUCH OF THE VALLEY
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS SO HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY.
EXPECTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25-35 MPH ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTS OF
40-50 MPH WILL SHIFT TO AREA RIDGETOPS (SUCH AS RYEGRASS SUMMIT
ALONG I-90) AFTER SUNSET. PLUNKETT/86
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM PDT WED JUL 2 2025/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE RIDGE UP NORTH MOVING
FURTHER EASTWARD, THE PACNW WILL ENTER A TROUGHING PATTERN THROUGH
THIS TERM. TODAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S AND 90S
WITH RHS REMAINING IN THE TEENS. DUE TO THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING RH VALUES LOWERING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS FOR COLUMBIA BASIN, KITTITAS VALLEY, AND CENTRAL
OR, A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING
FOR THOSE AREAS. IN ADDITION TO THAT, THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. THE CAMS
HAVE CAPE VALUES SLIGHTLY MODEST (500-800 J/KG) WITH DECREASED
PWATS (<0.75 INCHES). GIVEN THE LOW MOISTURE LEVEL, THE SEVERITY
OF THESE STORMS MAY NOT BE VERY HIGH BUT, SLIGHTLY MODERATE ENOUGH
TO INDUCE CG LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE
AND RADAR IMAGERY. OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY AS WELL
(50% CONFIDENCE). CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR THE WINDS WITH THE DRY
MICROBURST PARAMETERS SHOWING AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING, DOWNDRAFT
CAPE (DCAPE) ABOVE 1000 AND STEEP LAPSE RATES (>8.0 C/KM). BY
TONIGHT, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN MOVING OUT OF OUR AREA,
THOUGH MAY LEAVE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND. THE CASCADE GAPS
WILL CONTINUE HAVING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE
STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. THERE IS A 30-50% PROB FOR
GUSTS REACHING TO 45 MPH OR HIGHER OVER THE GORGE AND KITTITAS
VALLEY. WINDS HAVE BEEN CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
KITTITAS VALLEY SINCE THE GUSTS ARE BORDERLINE BETWEEN 35-45 MPH.
WINDS WILL START DECREASING LATER ON THIS EVENING.
TOMORROW WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
EVENING SHOWERS ARRIVE ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES (<30%) OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
INSTABILITY IS THERE BUT CAPE VALUES REMAINS MODEST (UNDER 800
J/KG) INCLUDING LOW MOISTURE, SO CHANCES ON SEVERITY WILL BE
UNLIKELY AS WELL. LIGHT SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE COLUMBIA
BASIN AND VALLEY ZONES FRIDAY EVENING, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW
(<15%) AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE LATEST HREF AND OTHER GUIDANCE
SHOWING LIMITED SPREAD OF PRECIP. TEMPERATURES WILL DECLINE TO THE
70S AND 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. RHS WILL GRADUALLY RECOVER
A BIT TO THE 20S WITH PORTIONS OF THE YAKIMA VALLEY, NORTH CENTRAL
OR, AND UPPER PART OF THE LOWER BASIN HAVING POCKETS OF RHS IN
THE TEENS FOR TOMORROW, BUT WILL IMPROVE FRIDAY. BREEZY WINDS AT
15-25 MPH CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE CASCADE GAPS WITH A 40% PROB FOR
GUSTS TO REACH 30 MPH AT THE GORGE AND KITTITAS VALLEY THROUGH
FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL THEN MOVE TO THE
WALLOWAS, BUT MOSTLY OUT OF OUR AREA WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
AGAIN. CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS MIGHT NOT BE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. FEASTER/97
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THIS LONG TERM IS
CHARACTERIZED BY LONG-LASTING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY RETURN TO THE 80S AND HIGHER INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH RHS DROPPING AGAIN TO THE 20S AND TEENS. TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST AND DRIEST DAYS OF THIS TERM
WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 100S AROUND THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND VALLEY
ZONES, LEAVING EVERYWHERE ELSE IN THE HIGH 90S. MODERATE HEATRISK
WILL START OFF MONDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN BEFORE
EXTENDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
POCKETS OF MAJOR HEATRISK OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN, WHICH COULD
WARRANT HEAT ADVISORIES. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS WITH OCCASIONAL BREEZES AT THE CASCADE GAPS. FEASTER/97
AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN SMOKE REDUCING VSBYS AT PDT/ALW DUE TO A
FIRE NEAR HRI IS LOW (<30%). OTHERWISE, WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO WINDY
WEST WINDS WILL DECREASE IN MAGNITUDE OVERNIGHT. PLUNKETT/86
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 57 86 59 80 / 0 0 0 10
ALW 60 86 62 79 / 0 0 0 10
PSC 58 89 59 83 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 56 87 58 84 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 58 89 59 82 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 55 84 57 83 / 0 0 0 0
RDM 45 83 48 73 / 0 0 10 10
LGD 53 84 57 77 / 20 0 10 30
GCD 51 87 54 79 / 20 0 20 40
DLS 58 85 59 80 / 0 0 0 10
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...97
LONG TERM....97
AVIATION...77
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