890
FXUS66 KPDT 031818
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1118 AM PDT THU JUL 3 2025
AVIATION...18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY
FOR ALL SITES. OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY, A LOW-PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ONSHORE AND PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OREGON WITH SOME
POTENTIAL (30% CHANCE) FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR RDM/BDN. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR OTHER SITES ARE LOW (<30%) THROUGH
15Z WITH LOW (30%) CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR ALW/PDT BEGINNING 15Z.
WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY TODAY. PLUNKETT/86
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 952 PM PDT WED JUL 2 2025/
UPDATE...
WINDS HAVE DECREASED ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DO SO. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED THAT ALL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...IN IDAHO
AND SHOULD REMAIN THERE BEFORE MOVING FURTHER AWAY OR
DISSIPATING.
WITH WINDS DECREASING, AND TEMPERATURES ALSO DECREASING,
HUMIDITIES WILL SLOWLY RISE. THEREFORE, THE RED FLAG WARNING WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. ALSO, THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY
WAS CANCELLED EARLY AS WINDS, WHILE BREEZY HAVE DROPPED BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 613 PM PDT WED JUL 2 2025/
UPDATE
NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BOUNCED AROUND ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH THE KITTITAS VALLEY FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE NEAR THEIR PEAK, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (80%)
THAT CRITERIA WILL BE PERIODICALLY MET THROUGH MUCH OF THE VALLEY
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS SO HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY. EXPECTING
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25-35 MPH ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH
WILL SHIFT TO AREA RIDGETOPS (SUCH AS RYEGRASS SUMMIT ALONG I-90)
AFTER SUNSET. PLUNKETT/86
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 402 PM PDT WED JUL 2 2025/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH THE RIDGE UP NORTH
MOVING FURTHER EASTWARD, THE PACNW WILL ENTER A TROUGHING PATTERN
THROUGH THIS TERM. TODAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S
AND 90S WITH RHS REMAINING IN THE TEENS. DUE TO THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING RH VALUES LOWERING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS FOR COLUMBIA BASIN, KITTITAS VALLEY,
AND CENTRAL OR, A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING FOR THOSE AREAS. IN ADDITION TO THAT, THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING. THE CAMS HAVE CAPE VALUES SLIGHTLY MODEST (500-800 J/KG)
WITH DECREASED PWATS (<0.75 INCHES). GIVEN THE LOW MOISTURE LEVEL,
THE SEVERITY OF THESE STORMS MAY NOT BE VERY HIGH BUT, SLIGHTLY
MODERATE ENOUGH TO INDUCE CG LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL BASED ON
CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY. OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ALSO
BECOME BREEZY AS WELL (50% CONFIDENCE). CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR
THE WINDS WITH THE DRY MICROBURST PARAMETERS SHOWING AN INVERTED-V
SOUNDING, DOWNDRAFT CAPE (DCAPE) ABOVE 1000 AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
(>8.0 C/KM). BY TONIGHT, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN MOVING
OUT OF OUR AREA, THOUGH MAY LEAVE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND.
THE CASCADE GAPS WILL CONTINUE HAVING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS FROM THE STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. THERE IS A
30-50% PROB FOR GUSTS REACHING TO 45 MPH OR HIGHER OVER THE GORGE
AND KITTITAS VALLEY. WINDS HAVE BEEN CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR KITTITAS VALLEY SINCE THE GUSTS ARE BORDERLINE
BETWEEN 35-45 MPH. WINDS WILL START DECREASING LATER ON THIS
EVENING.
TOMORROW WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
EVENING SHOWERS ARRIVE ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES (<30%) OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
INSTABILITY IS THERE BUT CAPE VALUES REMAINS MODEST (UNDER 800
J/KG) INCLUDING LOW MOISTURE, SO CHANCES ON SEVERITY WILL BE
UNLIKELY AS WELL. LIGHT SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE COLUMBIA
BASIN AND VALLEY ZONES FRIDAY EVENING, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW
(<15%) AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE LATEST HREF AND OTHER GUIDANCE
SHOWING LIMITED SPREAD OF PRECIP. TEMPERATURES WILL DECLINE TO THE
70S AND 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. RHS WILL GRADUALLY RECOVER
A BIT TO THE 20S WITH PORTIONS OF THE YAKIMA VALLEY, NORTH CENTRAL
OR, AND UPPER PART OF THE LOWER BASIN HAVING POCKETS OF RHS IN
THE TEENS FOR TOMORROW, BUT WILL IMPROVE FRIDAY. BREEZY WINDS AT
15-25 MPH CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE CASCADE GAPS WITH A 40% PROB FOR
GUSTS TO REACH 30 MPH AT THE GORGE AND KITTITAS VALLEY THROUGH
FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL THEN MOVE TO THE
WALLOWAS, BUT MOSTLY OUT OF OUR AREA WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
AGAIN. CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS MIGHT NOT BE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. FEASTER/97
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THIS LONG TERM IS
CHARACTERIZED BY LONG-LASTING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY RETURN TO THE 80S AND HIGHER INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH RHS DROPPING AGAIN TO THE 20S AND TEENS. TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST AND DRIEST DAYS OF THIS TERM
WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 100S AROUND THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND VALLEY
ZONES, LEAVING EVERYWHERE ELSE IN THE HIGH 90S. MODERATE HEATRISK
WILL START OFF MONDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN BEFORE
EXTENDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
POCKETS OF MAJOR HEATRISK OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN, WHICH COULD
WARRANT HEAT ADVISORIES. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS WITH OCCASIONAL BREEZES AT THE CASCADE GAPS. FEASTER/97
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 87 59 81 57 / 0 0 30 10
ALW 87 62 80 60 / 0 0 30 10
PSC 89 59 84 59 / 0 0 20 0
YKM 88 58 83 58 / 0 0 10 0
HRI 89 59 83 59 / 0 0 20 0
ELN 84 57 83 56 / 0 0 10 0
RDM 83 50 76 43 / 0 30 40 10
LGD 84 57 74 51 / 0 10 50 20
GCD 87 54 77 48 / 0 30 70 30
DLS 85 60 81 57 / 0 10 20 0
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...97
LONG TERM....97
AVIATION...86
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