750
FXUS66 KPDT 051730
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1030 AM PDT TUE AUG 5 2025
.UPDATED AVIATION.
AVIATION...18Z TAFS
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE CLEAR WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING LESS THAN VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A COUPLE ROUND OF SHOWERS WOULD MAKE
THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA FROM THE COLUMBIA BASIN INTO THE KITTITAS
VALLEYS TOMORROW MORNING. WASN'T CONFIDENT ON WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION, SO WENT AHEAD AND PUT A PROB30 GROUP FOR MOST OF
THE BASIN SITES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 141 PM PDT MON AUG 4 2025/
DISCUSSION...CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SOME CELLS OVER THE REGION THAT
ARE PUTTING DOWN SOME PRECIPITATION. THERE ARE ALSO A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF GRANT COUNTY WITH SOME
LIGHTNING EMBEDDED AS WELL AS IN WALLOWA JUST SOUTHEAST OF
ENTERPRISE AND JOSEPH. GROUND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT WITHIN THE
LAST 3 HOURS, THESE CELLS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PUT DOWN 0.01-0.05
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION WITH SOME HIGHER ELEVATION OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING 0.10-0.12 INCHES. BOTH WET AND DRY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
TUESDAY MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE CURRENT SYSTEM
WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST LEAVING THE REGION IN PRIMARILY A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAVE THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA FREE AND CLEAR OF PRECIPITATION. OVER 60% OF THE RAW
ENSEMBLES SHOW TEMPERATURES TO REMIAN IN THE LOW TO UPPER 80S. EFI
SHOWS EACH DAY TO BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL AND OUR
CLIMATOLOGY INFORMATION PLACES THE AREAS AROUND THE CWA BETWEEN
1-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ALONG THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ALL THE WAY
TO 10-11 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ALONG SOME OF THE HIGHER AREAS ALONG
THE NORTHERN BLUES AND WA CASCADES.
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, MODELS SHOW A
SHORTWAVE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE PACNW BRINGING INCREASED
PROBABILITIES OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. EFI SHOWS THE QPF TO BE A BIT
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL AND A FEW CAMS MODELS SHOW PRECIPITATION
TOTALS BE BE BETWEEN 0.10-0.20 ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN BLUES AS WELL AS 0.05-0.15 ALONG THE WA CASCADES.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO BE RIGHT
OVERHEAD WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING WITH IT SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND WALLOWA COUNTY WITH MODELS SHOWING 15-30%
PROBABILITIES. LONG RANGE MODELS DO SHOW AN INCREASE IN STABILITY
WITH MUCAPE VALUES INCREASING. AS THIS IS DAY 4, WE WILL CONTINUE
MONITORING.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO BE OFF
TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE PACNW. HOWEVER, CLUSTERS ARE HAVING
TROUBLE DIGESTING THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE LOW AND THE
ENTRANCE OF THE RIDGE SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOW AT THIS POINT ON
WHEN THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA. REGARDLESS, ALL MODELS ARE
POINTING TO AN UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. SO FAR
50-70% OF THE RAW ENSEMBLES SHOW TEMPERATURES TO BE OVER 90
DEGREES BY SATURDAY. BENNESE/90
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 60 80 58 80 / 0 20 20 30
ALW 64 80 62 79 / 0 20 20 30
PSC 62 81 58 83 / 0 20 20 20
YKM 62 79 55 80 / 20 40 30 10
HRI 64 82 60 83 / 0 20 10 20
ELN 59 75 54 75 / 20 50 30 20
RDM 50 80 49 79 / 0 10 10 10
LGD 54 80 56 76 / 0 10 20 30
GCD 53 81 54 79 / 0 0 10 10
DLS 64 78 61 79 / 20 40 30 10
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...90
LONG TERM....90
AVIATION...95
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page