597
FXUS66 KPDT 070523
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1023 PM PDT WED AUG 6 2025
UPDATED AVIATION...06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. CIGS WILL BE 5KFT AND ABOVE WITH PDT SEEING
VCSH. LOW LIKELIHOOD (10-20%) OF CONDITIONS DROPPING BELOW VFR.
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY BELOW 10 KTS OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN TOMORROW WITH AREAS SEEING SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 10-20 KTS
AND GUSTS NEARING 25KTS AT ALL SITES BEGINNING AFTER 15Z.
BENNESE/90
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 142 PM PDT WED AUG 6 2025/
DISCUSSION...STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION AS A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. MOST PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT
ALBEIT EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR WA
CASCADE/CASCADE CREST IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONAL
DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME CAPE DEVELOPING NEAR ~250 J/KG WILL BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A POP-UP STORM. NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD
EVENT, BUT SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
PEA SIZE HAIL. NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP, BUT
WETTING RAINS (>.10" INCH PER 24 HOURS) IS VERY POSSIBLE (>90%
CHANCE) WITH NBM SHOWING UP TO A HALF INCH FALLING OVERNIGHT WHERE
THE HEAVIEST STORMS ARE. SPC DOES NOT HAVE THIS AREA IN A RISK, SO
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE OVERNIGHT.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TOMORROW AS A
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MUCH OF THE BASIN AND OTHER MOUNTAIN REGIONS.
THIS WILL PROVIDE ADEQUATE LIFTING AND MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO SHIFT TOWARDS SE WASHINGTON/NE OREGON AS THE SHORTWAVE
PROGRESSES TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SHIFT TO THE WALLOWAS, EASTERN MOUNTAINS, AND PARTS OF SE
WASHINGTON. NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH QPF AS THE STORMS WE'LL HAVE IN
THE CASCADES, BUT THEY WILL HAVE THE SAME POSSIBLE HAZARDS OF
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND PEA SIZE HAIL.
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE TAMED VERY MUCH THANKS TO THE
WETTER, COOLER WEATHER. NOT EXPECTING ANY RED FLAG CRITERIA TO BE
A CONCERN UNTIL WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING STARTS TO
TAKE OVER THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DRYING AND WARMING WILL TAKE PLACE
STARTING THE WORK WEEK, WHICH WILL COME WITH LOW RH, HIGH
TEMPERATURES CONCERNS. NBM CURRENTLY DOESN'T SHOW WIDESPREAD EVENT
OF LOW RH, BUT SMALL POCKETS OF OVERLAP BEGIN TO POP-UP.
ADDITIONALLY, HEAT CONCERNS MAKE A COME BACK WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING IN HEAT, TEMPERATURES COULD REACH TRIPLE DIGITS IN SMALL
PARTS OF THE BASIN. HEATRISK ONLY SHOWS WIDESPREAD "2"S BUT ONLY
A SMALL POCKET OF MAJOR "3"S. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE HOW
STRONG/WEAK THE RIDGE DEVELOPS AS IT WILL TELL US A CLEARER STORY
OF HOW HOT TEMPERATURES WILL BE. NBM CLUSTERS ARE SPLIT ABOUT
PUSHING ON A STRONGER OR WEAKER RIDGE. FOR NOW, WE DON'T
ANTICIPATE ANY HEAT HIGHLIGHTS WITH CURRENT FORECASTS, BUT WILL
ALWAYS NEED TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE TRENDS THAT FAVOR HEATING
CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 58 78 50 84 / 40 30 0 0
ALW 62 78 55 83 / 40 30 0 0
PSC 59 81 52 87 / 40 10 0 0
YKM 54 78 52 87 / 40 10 0 0
HRI 60 81 54 87 / 40 10 0 0
ELN 53 73 52 84 / 50 10 0 0
RDM 47 78 40 84 / 10 0 0 0
LGD 55 75 46 81 / 30 40 0 0
GCD 53 78 45 82 / 10 10 0 0
DLS 60 77 56 86 / 30 0 0 0
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...90
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