987
FXUS66 KPDT 052103
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
203 PM PDT FRI SEP 5 2025
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
MONDAY, WITH THE BROADER UPPER TROUGH IMPACTING THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL OREGON TODAY, THEN CENTRAL
OREGON AND THE CASCADES ON SATURDAY. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BECOME MORE WET THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL OREGON COULD END
UP GETTING SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION REMAINS ABOUT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES, AND HOW MANY IN A GIVEN AREA AND WHAT THAT IMPACT WILL
BE ON ANY NEW FIRE STARTS, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. OTHER QUESTIONS
ARE WHAT IMPACT SMOKE WILL HAVE ON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND IF
RAIN WILL ALLEVIATE CONCERNS FROM LIGHTNING, AT LEAST IN SOME
AREAS.
WILL NEED TO KEEP WATCH ON THIS TO SEE IF ANY FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES BECOME NECESSARY.
BY WEDNESDAY, MORE GENERALLY LOW (<=30%) PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED AS AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO HELP INCREASE
RH VALUES.
AVIATION
18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREAS FOR THE
MOST PART THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH A FEW CAVEATS. THERE WILL BE SOME
REDUCED VSBYS MAINLY AT YKM, BUT COULD HAVE SOME LOCAL REDUCTIONS
ELSEWHERE DUE TO SMOKE FROM REGIONAL FIRES.
OTHERWISE, LATEST RADAR HAD SOME SHRA OVER CENTRAL OREGON, AND
ADDITIONAL SHRA AND SOME TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM 05/2200Z THROUGH 06/0100Z. THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATIONS TO SEE TSRA WOULD BE BDN AND RDM AND INCLUDED TEMPO
GROUPS AT THIS TIME.
OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA, WINDS WILL BE 10 KTS OR LESS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 66 89 61 85 / 20 30 40 30
ALW 70 91 66 85 / 10 20 30 40
PSC 63 91 63 88 / 10 20 20 20
YKM 68 93 63 86 / 10 30 30 30
HRI 66 91 63 87 / 10 30 30 30
ELN 63 91 61 82 / 10 30 30 50
RDM 54 86 50 79 / 40 40 40 40
LGD 60 88 56 84 / 10 30 40 40
GCD 60 87 54 83 / 30 40 40 20
DLS 68 88 64 82 / 20 50 40 30
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ696>700-704-
705.
WA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...77
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