999
FXUS66 KPDT 060021
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
521 PM PDT FRI SEP 5 2025
AVIATION...00Z TAFS
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. TEMPORARY SUB-VFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AT BDN/RDM, WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SUB-VFR VSBYS IN FU/HZ AT
YKM OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW (<30%) IN SUB-VFR
VSBYS AT OTHER SITES IN FU/HZ, DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN LOW-LEVEL
SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS.
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY 10 KTS OR LESS, EXCEPT IN THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOW. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG, GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS OF UP TO 50 MPH.
MOSTLY MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL SITES,
EXCEPT FOR TEMPORARY CIGS OF AROUND 5 KFT IN HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. PLUNKETT/86
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 203 PM PDT FRI SEP 5 2025/
DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH MONDAY, WITH THE BROADER UPPER TROUGH IMPACTING
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL OREGON TODAY, THEN CENTRAL
OREGON AND THE CASCADES ON SATURDAY. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BECOME MORE
WET THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS
AND CENTRAL OREGON COULD END UP GETTING SOME DECENT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION REMAINS ABOUT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES, AND HOW MANY IN A GIVEN AREA AND WHAT THAT IMPACT WILL
BE ON ANY NEW FIRE STARTS, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. OTHER QUESTIONS
ARE WHAT IMPACT SMOKE WILL HAVE ON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND IF
RAIN WILL ALLEVIATE CONCERNS FROM LIGHTNING, AT LEAST IN SOME
AREAS. WILL NEED TO KEEP WATCH ON THIS TO SEE IF ANY FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES BECOME NECESSARY.
BY WEDNESDAY, MORE GENERALLY LOW (<=30%) PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED AS AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO HELP INCREASE
RH VALUES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 66 89 61 85 / 20 30 40 30
ALW 70 91 66 85 / 10 20 30 40
PSC 63 91 63 88 / 10 20 20 20
YKM 68 93 63 86 / 10 30 30 30
HRI 66 91 63 87 / 10 30 30 30
ELN 63 91 61 82 / 10 30 30 50
RDM 54 86 50 79 / 50 40 40 40
LGD 60 88 56 84 / 10 30 40 40
GCD 60 87 54 83 / 30 40 40 20
DLS 68 88 64 82 / 20 50 40 30
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ696>700-704-
705.
WA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...86
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