825
FXUS66 KPDT 062018
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
118 PM PDT SAT SEP 6 2025
DISCUSSION
OUR WET, ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES AS A PARENT LOW
SPINNING OFF THE PACNW COAST CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE A SERIES OF
UPPER-LEVEL WAVES THROUGH THE REGION. FOR TODAY, THIS WAVE SHOWS UP
VERY CLEARLY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS A CLOUD SHIELD ENVELOPS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE SOME CLEARING TAKES
PLACE OVER CENTRAL OREGON. GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND LIFT SUPPLIED BY
THIS WAVE, THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TO FIRE OFF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SWEEPING NORTHWARD INTO THE BASIN, AS WELL AS
RIDING ALONG THE SPINE OF THE CASCADES. LATEST CAMS SUGGEST THESE
STORMS WILL FLARE UP AT AROUND 3-5 PM THIS AFTERNOON, REPLACING THE
ONGOING LIGHT SHOWERS RIDING UP THROUGH THE BLUES, INTO THE BASIN
AND UP INTO THE WA CASCADES.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR TO THESE
STORMS IS SHEAR, WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS,
HOWEVER SHOULD NOTE THAT LATEST CAMS ARE HINTING AT A DEVELOPED LINE
OF STORMS ONCE EVERYTHING KICKS OFF THIS EVENING, CAPABLE OF STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH, AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL. CONFIDENCE
IN ANYTHING SEVERE FORMING IS LOW (20-30%) GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA STEMMING FROM THE ACTIVITY THIS
MORNING AS WELL AS THE LACK OF BULK SHEAR, BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF SOME STORMS FLIRT WITH SEVERE CRITERIA.
STORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE WETTING IN NATURE AS THEY HAVE
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. DID ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING LAST NIGHT FOR
THE CENTRAL WA CASCADES FOR STORMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, AS
WETTING RAINS MAY BE SPOTTIER UP THERE WHERE THE FUELS ARE DRIER.
ONCE WE START HEADING INTO NEXT WORK WEEK AND THIS PARENT LOW BEGINS
PUSHING ONSHORE, HOWEVER, WET AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE,
HINDERING STORM DEVELOPMENT AND THUS DAMPENING ANY FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE PARTICULARLY COOL AND WET,
WITH HIGH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO CLIMB OVER THE MID 70S ACROSS EVEN THE
LOWER BASIN. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS, BUT THE CONVECTIVE THREAT OVERALL LOOKS TO BE
MAXIMIZED TODAY, STEADILY DECREASING OVER SUCCESSIVE DAYS. EVANS/74
AVIATION...18Z TAFS (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)
A COMPLEX
WEATHER SETUP FOR TODAY WILL MAKE FOR VARIABLE CONDITIONS, VARYING
FROM LINGERING AREA SMOKE/HAZE, TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TOP OF WHAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED THIS MORNING. THIS
MORNING'S ROUND OF SHOWERS IS STARTING TO PETER OUT BUT MAY STILL
INFLICT BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MAINLY PSC, PDT, RDM, AND BDN.
THEN, ONCE SOME CLEARING TAKES PLACE THIS AFTERNOON, WEATHER MODELS
SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
CENTRAL OREGON AND SPREADING NORTHWARD.
DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS, CONFIDENCE
IS ONLY MODERATE (40-50%) ON ANY ONE SITE RECEIVING ANYTHING, BUT
BEST ODDS LOOK TO BE IN DLS AND YKM FOR AT LEAST THIS EVENING FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTICULAR, WITH SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND MOSTLY TERRIAN-DRIVEN, HOWEVER OUTFLOW WINDS FROM
STORMS MAY MAKE FOR BRIEF GUSTY CONDITIONS. EVANS/74
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 61 86 58 81 / 30 40 20 30
ALW 66 87 62 83 / 20 40 30 20
PSC 61 89 58 84 / 10 20 10 10
YKM 63 87 56 82 / 30 40 10 20
HRI 63 88 60 83 / 20 30 10 30
ELN 59 82 54 81 / 30 50 20 20
RDM 50 79 50 74 / 40 40 10 60
LGD 56 84 52 83 / 40 50 30 30
GCD 55 83 52 81 / 40 30 10 20
DLS 64 82 61 80 / 40 30 10 50
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR WAZ690-695.
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74
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