823
FXUS66 KPDT 071714
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1014 AM PDT SUN SEP 7 2025
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
AVIATION...18Z TAFS
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
PERIOD. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT YKM, WHICH CONTINUES TO DEAL WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO AREA SMOKE/HAZE, AND POSSIBLY
PSC, HOWEVER OBS THIS MORNING REPORT VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP AROUND RDM/BDN THIS
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO MAKE ANY MENTION OF
SUCH IN THE TAF. DLS WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH BREEZY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS, WHILE ALL OTHER SITES SEE LIGHT, TERRAIN-
DRIVEN WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS. EVANS/74
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 814 AM PDT SUN SEP 7 2025/
MORNING UPDATE...SCALED BACK POPS QUITE A BIT FOR TODAY, AS 12Z
CAMS ARE NOT VERY BULLISH AT ALL ON SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY.
COULD STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OREGON AND THE CENTRAL
WASHINGTON CASCADES, BUT TODAY LOOKS TO BE MUCH MORE MUTED IN
TERMS OF RAIN TODAY, ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. EVANS/74
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 118 PM PDT SAT SEP 6 2025/
DISCUSSION...OUR WET, ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES AS A PARENT LOW
SPINNING OFF THE PACNW COAST CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE A SERIES OF
UPPER-LEVEL WAVES THROUGH THE REGION. FOR TODAY, THIS WAVE SHOWS UP
VERY CLEARLY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS A CLOUD SHIELD ENVELOPS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE SOME CLEARING TAKES
PLACE OVER CENTRAL OREGON. GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND LIFT SUPPLIED BY
THIS WAVE, THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TO FIRE OFF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SWEEPING NORTHWARD INTO THE BASIN, AS WELL AS
RIDING ALONG THE SPINE OF THE CASCADES. LATEST CAMS SUGGEST THESE
STORMS WILL FLARE UP AT AROUND 3-5 PM THIS AFTERNOON, REPLACING THE
ONGOING LIGHT SHOWERS RIDING UP THROUGH THE BLUES, INTO THE BASIN
AND UP INTO THE WA CASCADES.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR TO THESE
STORMS IS SHEAR, WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS,
HOWEVER SHOULD NOTE THAT LATEST CAMS ARE HINTING AT A DEVELOPED LINE
OF STORMS ONCE EVERYTHING KICKS OFF THIS EVENING, CAPABLE OF STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH, AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL. CONFIDENCE
IN ANYTHING SEVERE FORMING IS LOW (20-30%) GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA STEMMING FROM THE ACTIVITY THIS
MORNING AS WELL AS THE LACK OF BULK SHEAR, BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF SOME STORMS FLIRT WITH SEVERE CRITERIA.
STORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE WETTING IN NATURE AS THEY HAVE
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. DID ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING LAST NIGHT FOR
THE CENTRAL WA CASCADES FOR STORMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, AS
WETTING RAINS MAY BE SPOTTIER UP THERE WHERE THE FUELS ARE DRIER.
ONCE WE START HEADING INTO NEXT WORK WEEK AND THIS PARENT LOW BEGINS
PUSHING ONSHORE, HOWEVER, WET AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE,
HINDERING STORM DEVELOPMENT AND THUS DAMPENING ANY FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE PARTICULARLY COOL AND WET,
WITH HIGH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO CLIMB OVER THE MID 70S ACROSS EVEN THE
LOWER BASIN. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS, BUT THE CONVECTIVE THREAT OVERALL LOOKS TO BE
MAXIMIZED TODAY, STEADILY DECREASING OVER SUCCESSIVE DAYS. EVANS/74
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 85 58 81 56 / 20 20 40 70
ALW 85 63 83 60 / 20 40 20 70
PSC 88 59 83 58 / 10 10 10 60
YKM 87 57 82 58 / 30 10 20 60
HRI 87 59 82 58 / 10 10 30 60
ELN 82 54 80 53 / 20 20 20 60
RDM 80 51 72 47 / 30 20 80 70
LGD 85 52 82 51 / 40 40 30 60
GCD 84 53 81 51 / 20 20 30 50
DLS 83 61 80 61 / 30 10 50 70
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74
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