677
FXUS66 KPDT 072035
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
135 PM PDT SUN SEP 7 2025
DISCUSSION
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION, THANKS TO A QUASI-STATIONARY LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST
OF THE PACNW, WHICH CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE UPPER-LEVEL WAVES EAST OF
THE CASCADES. THE RECURRING THEME OF THESE LAST FEW DAYS SEEM TO BE
THAT REALITY IS OUTPACING THE MODELS IN TERMS OF CONVECTION AND
RAINFALL - GOOD IN THE SENSE THAT A LOT OF THESE RAINS HAVE BEEN
BENEFICIAL IN SUPPRESSING WILDFIRE ACTIVITY, BUT BAD IN THAT
LIGHTNING STRIKES OUTSIDE RAIN CORES CAN STILL LEAD TO NEW FIRE
STARTS. WE'VE (MOSTLY) HELD BACK ON CONSTANT RED FLAG WARNINGS DUE
TO THE GENERALLY WET NATURE OF THE STORMS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
SO AS TO NOT OVERWHELM OUR PARTNERS, WHILE ACKNOWLEDGING THAT THESE
SCENARIOS OF CONSECUTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAYS CAN BE "LOSE-LOSE" IN
TERMS OF MESSAGING, AS THE RISK OF NEW FIRE STARTS ALWAYS PREVAILS
DUE TO STORMS THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TODAY HAD APPEARED TO BE QUIET AT FIRST BASED ON CAMS SUCH AS THE
HRRR, HOWEVER ISOLATED STORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN FIRING OFF OVER CENTRAL
OREGON AND EASTERN OREGON, AS WELL AS THE WASHINGTON CASCADES.
STORMS HAVE BEEN SUB-SEVERE THUS FAR, AND THE CAMS THAT DO FAVOR
CONVECTION DO KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY ISOLATED (WITH THE STORMS THAT
DO FORM BEING GENERALLY WET), BUT OUTFLOW WINDS FROM STORMS AND
LIGHTNING CAN STILL WRECK HAVOC FOR ONGOING AND NEW INCIDENTS.
STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN START TO DISSIPATE AS THE SUN SETS.
THE LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL IS THAT ONCE THIS AFOREMENTIONED
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE ONSHORE, THE WEATHER WILL TURN COOLER, AND
SHOWERS WILL START TO PREVAIL OVER THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
(60-70%) THAT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE WETTING RAINS BY
THE MIDWEEK, WITH THE HOPE THAT THIS WILL AT LEAST PARTIALLY COUNTER
ANY NEW FIRE ACTIVITY INITIATED BY LIGHTNING STRIKES. MONDAY COULD
VERY WELL BE A REPEAT OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, HOWEVER FOR TUESDAY
ONWARD, CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN ELEVATED SHOWER CHANCES AND
SUPPRESSED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. HIGH TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, WITH EVEN THE LOWER BASIN STRUGGLING TO REACH THE
80S, BEFORE TEMPS MODERATE BACK TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE READINGS FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK. EVANS/74
AVIATION...18Z TAFS
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
PERIOD. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT YKM AND PSC, WHICH CONTINUE TO DEAL
WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO AREA SMOKE/HAZE, HOWEVER OBS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON REPORT VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING AROUND RDM/BDN THIS AFTERNOON,
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE EXTENT AND DURATION OF THESE
STORMS WITHIN THE PERIOD. DLS WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH BREEZY
WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS, WHILE ALL OTHER SITES SEE LIGHT,
TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS, EXCEPT FOR IN THE VICINITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS. EVANS/74
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 58 83 56 75 / 20 30 80 60
ALW 62 84 60 76 / 30 20 80 50
PSC 58 85 58 79 / 10 10 60 40
YKM 56 83 58 74 / 10 20 70 70
HRI 59 84 58 78 / 10 30 70 50
ELN 53 82 54 74 / 20 20 60 70
RDM 51 73 48 68 / 20 70 80 80
LGD 52 83 50 73 / 40 40 60 60
GCD 53 81 50 71 / 20 30 50 60
DLS 61 81 62 76 / 0 40 80 70
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74
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