630
FXUS66 KPDT 080526
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1026 PM PDT SUN SEP 7 2025
UPDATED AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ALL TAF SITES WILL SEE CIGS OF BKN/OVC 15-25KFT.
DLS WILL SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF BREEZY CONDITIONS OF 10-14 KTS WITH
GUSTS 20-25 KTS WHILE THE REMAINING SITES WILL SEE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS SHIFTING TO WESTERLY IN THE LATE MORNING EARLY
AFTERNOON AND REMAINING BELOW 10KTS. BENNESE/90
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 135 PM PDT SUN SEP 7 2025/
DISCUSSION...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION, THANKS TO A QUASI-STATIONARY LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST
OF THE PACNW, WHICH CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE UPPER-LEVEL WAVES EAST OF
THE CASCADES. THE RECURRING THEME OF THESE LAST FEW DAYS SEEM TO BE
THAT REALITY IS OUTPACING THE MODELS IN TERMS OF CONVECTION AND
RAINFALL - GOOD IN THE SENSE THAT A LOT OF THESE RAINS HAVE BEEN
BENEFICIAL IN SUPPRESSING WILDFIRE ACTIVITY, BUT BAD IN THAT
LIGHTNING STRIKES OUTSIDE RAIN CORES CAN STILL LEAD TO NEW FIRE
STARTS. WE'VE (MOSTLY) HELD BACK ON CONSTANT RED FLAG WARNINGS DUE
TO THE GENERALLY WET NATURE OF THE STORMS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
SO AS TO NOT OVERWHELM OUR PARTNERS, WHILE ACKNOWLEDGING THAT THESE
SCENARIOS OF CONSECUTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAYS CAN BE "LOSE-LOSE" IN
TERMS OF MESSAGING, AS THE RISK OF NEW FIRE STARTS ALWAYS PREVAILS
DUE TO STORMS THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TODAY HAD APPEARED TO BE QUIET AT FIRST BASED ON CAMS SUCH AS THE
HRRR, HOWEVER ISOLATED STORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN FIRING OFF OVER CENTRAL
OREGON AND EASTERN OREGON, AS WELL AS THE WASHINGTON CASCADES.
STORMS HAVE BEEN SUB-SEVERE THUS FAR, AND THE CAMS THAT DO FAVOR
CONVECTION DO KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY ISOLATED (WITH THE STORMS THAT
DO FORM BEING GENERALLY WET), BUT OUTFLOW WINDS FROM STORMS AND
LIGHTNING CAN STILL WRECK HAVOC FOR ONGOING AND NEW INCIDENTS.
STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN START TO DISSIPATE AS THE SUN SETS.
THE LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL IS THAT ONCE THIS AFOREMENTIONED
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE ONSHORE, THE WEATHER WILL TURN COOLER, AND
SHOWERS WILL START TO PREVAIL OVER THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
(60-70%) THAT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE WETTING RAINS BY
THE MIDWEEK, WITH THE HOPE THAT THIS WILL AT LEAST PARTIALLY COUNTER
ANY NEW FIRE ACTIVITY INITIATED BY LIGHTNING STRIKES. MONDAY COULD
VERY WELL BE A REPEAT OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, HOWEVER FOR TUESDAY
ONWARD, CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN ELEVATED SHOWER CHANCES AND
SUPPRESSED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. HIGH TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, WITH EVEN THE LOWER BASIN STRUGGLING TO REACH THE
80S, BEFORE TEMPS MODERATE BACK TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE READINGS FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK. EVANS/74
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 58 83 56 75 / 20 30 80 60
ALW 62 84 60 76 / 30 20 80 50
PSC 58 85 58 79 / 10 10 60 40
YKM 56 83 58 74 / 10 20 70 70
HRI 59 84 58 78 / 10 30 70 50
ELN 53 82 54 74 / 20 20 60 70
RDM 51 73 48 68 / 20 70 80 80
LGD 52 83 50 73 / 40 40 60 60
GCD 53 81 50 71 / 20 30 50 60
DLS 61 81 62 76 / 0 40 80 70
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...90
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