068
FXUS66 KPDT 081754
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1054 AM PDT MON SEP 8 2025
.UPDATED FOR AVIATION
AVIATION
18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED. TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY AT BDN AND RDM. DUE TO
INCONSISTENCIES ON TIMING, HAVE OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE, RA WILL DEVELOP AT BDN AND RDM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND DEVELOP EVERYWHERE ELSE DURING TUESDAY
MORNING (EXCEPT AT PSC). WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KTS OR LESS,
OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA. HOWEVER, DLS WILL HAVE SOME GUSTY WINDS
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1026 PM PDT SUN SEP 7 2025/
UPDATED AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ALL TAF SITES WILL SEE CIGS OF BKN/OVC 15-25KFT.
DLS WILL SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF BREEZY CONDITIONS OF 10-14 KTS WITH
GUSTS 20-25 KTS WHILE THE REMAINING SITES WILL SEE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS SHIFTING TO WESTERLY IN THE LATE MORNING EARLY
AFTERNOON AND REMAINING BELOW 10KTS. BENNESE/90
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 135 PM PDT SUN SEP 7 2025/
DISCUSSION...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION, THANKS TO A QUASI-STATIONARY LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST
OF THE PACNW, WHICH CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE UPPER-LEVEL WAVES EAST OF
THE CASCADES. THE RECURRING THEME OF THESE LAST FEW DAYS SEEM TO BE
THAT REALITY IS OUTPACING THE MODELS IN TERMS OF CONVECTION AND
RAINFALL - GOOD IN THE SENSE THAT A LOT OF THESE RAINS HAVE BEEN
BENEFICIAL IN SUPPRESSING WILDFIRE ACTIVITY, BUT BAD IN THAT
LIGHTNING STRIKES OUTSIDE RAIN CORES CAN STILL LEAD TO NEW FIRE
STARTS. WE'VE (MOSTLY) HELD BACK ON CONSTANT RED FLAG WARNINGS DUE
TO THE GENERALLY WET NATURE OF THE STORMS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
SO AS TO NOT OVERWHELM OUR PARTNERS, WHILE ACKNOWLEDGING THAT THESE
SCENARIOS OF CONSECUTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAYS CAN BE "LOSE-LOSE" IN
TERMS OF MESSAGING, AS THE RISK OF NEW FIRE STARTS ALWAYS PREVAILS
DUE TO STORMS THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TODAY HAD APPEARED TO BE QUIET AT FIRST BASED ON CAMS SUCH AS THE
HRRR, HOWEVER ISOLATED STORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN FIRING OFF OVER CENTRAL
OREGON AND EASTERN OREGON, AS WELL AS THE WASHINGTON CASCADES.
STORMS HAVE BEEN SUB-SEVERE THUS FAR, AND THE CAMS THAT DO FAVOR
CONVECTION DO KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY ISOLATED (WITH THE STORMS THAT
DO FORM BEING GENERALLY WET), BUT OUTFLOW WINDS FROM STORMS AND
LIGHTNING CAN STILL WRECK HAVOC FOR ONGOING AND NEW INCIDENTS.
STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN START TO DISSIPATE AS THE SUN SETS.
THE LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL IS THAT ONCE THIS AFOREMENTIONED
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE ONSHORE, THE WEATHER WILL TURN COOLER, AND
SHOWERS WILL START TO PREVAIL OVER THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
(60-70%) THAT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE WETTING RAINS BY
THE MIDWEEK, WITH THE HOPE THAT THIS WILL AT LEAST PARTIALLY COUNTER
ANY NEW FIRE ACTIVITY INITIATED BY LIGHTNING STRIKES. MONDAY COULD
VERY WELL BE A REPEAT OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, HOWEVER FOR TUESDAY
ONWARD, CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN ELEVATED SHOWER CHANCES AND
SUPPRESSED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. HIGH TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, WITH EVEN THE LOWER BASIN STRUGGLING TO REACH THE
80S, BEFORE TEMPS MODERATE BACK TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE READINGS FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK. EVANS/74
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 82 57 77 55 / 20 50 50 40
ALW 83 60 79 59 / 10 50 50 40
PSC 85 58 80 56 / 10 40 50 20
YKM 83 58 75 55 / 20 60 70 30
HRI 83 58 79 55 / 20 50 50 30
ELN 81 55 75 52 / 10 40 70 30
RDM 75 48 70 46 / 70 80 80 50
LGD 83 50 75 51 / 30 50 60 50
GCD 83 50 75 50 / 30 40 50 50
DLS 82 62 77 58 / 30 70 70 30
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...77
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