264
FXUS66 KPDT 021153
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
453 AM PDT THU OCT 2 2025
AVIATION
AS FOR THE TERMINALS THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL MIRROR THE LAST 24
HOURS IN SOME WAYS, INCLUDING PREVAILING LIGHT WINDS AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE EASTERN CASCADE SLOPES (RDM/BDN) BEFORE 15Z THURSDAY WITH
LOCAL CEILINGS IN RAIN SHOWERS, IN THE MVFR CATEGORY - 2500 FEET
TO THE LOWER VFR RANGE AS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THEN CONTINUE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HREF MEAN MUCAPES MAX AXIS OF A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG IS SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER EAST BUT STILL IN THAT
ZONE WHERE CONVECTION COULD BE IN THE AREA OR EVEN VICINITY OF PDT
AND ALW AGAIN BY 21-00Z. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO CARRY
THUNDER IN THE TAF FOR THOSE LOCATIONS JUST YET BUT MUCH HIGHER
FOR SHOWER AND BRIEF DETERIORATED CEILINGS THURSDAY AFTENOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 153 PM PDT WED OCT 1 2025/
DISCUSSION...A LINE OF SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST. SHOWER AND RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE GOING THROUGH THE DAY, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON. INCREASING LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH VORTICITY WILL
HELP LIFT SOME SHOWERS TO POTENTIALLY PRODUCE SOME THUNDER.
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE GREATEST AREA OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN PARTS
OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS. GREATEST CHANCE FOR SOME WETTING RAINS (30-50% CHANCE)
WILL BE SECLUDED TO THE CASCADES/BLUE MOUNTAINS. BASIN AREAS WILL
RECEIVE LESS RAIN GOING THROUGH THE DAY. WE'LL SEE A DRY PERIOD
OVERNIGHT FOR MOST OF THE REGION, BUT WILL SEE PRECIP EMERGE INTO
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY.
LOOKING AHEAD, TEMPERATURES WILL STAY NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST
PART. HIGHS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN THE LOW 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION, WITH MID TO HIGH 60S FOR THE HIGHER POPULATED AREAS. LOW
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND IN CENTRAL OR THROUGH THE WALLOWA'S
ARE FORECASTED TO BE NEAR/AT FREEZING. VERY POSSIBLE WE'LL GET OUR
SEASON ENDING FREEZE FOR PARTS OF THE WALLOWA'S AND CENTRAL OR
ONCE THE WEEKEND IS OVER (55-65% CHANCE). WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON CLOUD COVER AND WIND TRENDS, AS THAT WILL EFFECT TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT OTHERWISE WITH FALL
CONDITIONS STARTING TO TAKE EFFECT. FOR PRECIP, A THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST WITH THE ONCOMING RIDGE TAKING MORE
INFLUENCE IN THE FORECAST. DRY PATTERN WILL RESUME OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH SMALL POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE
KITTITAS/ELLENSBURG AREA ALBEIT VERY LIMITED. AFTER THE TROUGH
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST, GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A SHORTWAVE
WILL EXTEND DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS. DISAGREEMENT WITH THE GFS/EURO STEMS WITH HOW FAR THEY
WANT TO EXTEND THE SHORTWAVE, WITH THE GFS EXTENDING THE SHORTWAVE
THAT ALLOWS FOR GREATER CHANCES OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. SOME
UNCERTAINTY THAT NEEDS TO BE WORKED OUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND, BUT PLENTY OF TIME TO MONITOR FOR CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 64 45 67 45 / 50 40 10 0
ALW 65 48 67 48 / 40 40 10 0
PSC 66 45 72 45 / 30 30 0 0
YKM 65 41 72 45 / 10 10 0 0
HRI 64 46 70 46 / 40 30 0 0
ELN 64 38 69 43 / 10 10 0 0
RDM 61 37 63 34 / 50 40 0 0
LGD 66 45 62 38 / 30 50 20 0
GCD 67 43 62 38 / 20 30 10 0
DLS 68 48 72 51 / 30 20 0 0
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99
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