434
FXUS66 KPDT 251123
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
423 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2025
UPDATED AVIATION
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 214 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2025/
DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOK TO BRING FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND A BROAD TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TROUGH.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AREA-WIDE.
HIGHEST LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF TODAY WILL BE IN THE OREGON
CASCADES WHERE OVER AN INCH IS EXPECTED WITH MUCH LESS ELSEWHERE
AND ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THERE WILL BE A
LULL IN PRECIPITATION TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND DEVELOPS ON
SUNDAY. LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF WILL BE HIGHEST ON THE CASCADE
CREST WHERE OVER 1 INCH IS FORECAST WITH UP TO 0.50 INCHES IN THE
BLUES AND 0.05 TO 0.10 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY START OFF FAIRLY HIGH, BETWEEN
4000-4500 FEET IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND BETWEEN 6500-7500
FEET ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER, THEY WILL DROP DURING THE DAY AND INTO
TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE AND WILL BE AROUND 4500-5000
FEET IN MOST AREAS LATE TODAY AND GENERALLY BETWEEN 3000-3500 FEET
BY SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL THEN RISE A BIT TO BETWEEN
3500-4500 FEET BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUSLY ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED
BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS AS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS
FOR ANY POSSIBLE UPGRADES, ESPECIALLY OVER THE OREGON CASCADES.
AS THE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE, THERE WILL BE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
AND THERE IS HIGH (70-90 PERCENT PROBABILITIES) OF WINDS REACHING
AT LEAST 45 MPH OR GREATER OF MUCH OF THE REGION, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN, SIMCOE HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL OREGON. THE NBM SHOWS PROBABILITIES OF WIND GUSTS >=39 MPH
OF 90 PERCENT OR GREATER OF MUCH OF THE REGION. THEM NBM
PROBABILITIES OF WINDS >= 47 MPH RANGE FROM 40 PERCENT TO 80
PERCENT ACROSS THE SAME AREAS. A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
ALSO AS THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH, COUPLED WITH COOL AIR
ALOFT DUE TO THE TROUGH, THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER, ESPECIALLY OVER FAR EASTERN OREGON THIS AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION DECREASES SUNDAY NIGHT, THOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE
SOME LOW CHANCES MONDAY. TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS AS A RIDGE BUILD IN. A WEAK SYSTEM COULD BRING MAINLY
MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY DRYING THURSDAY
AND PERHAPS ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION...125Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS OVERALL WILL CALM DOWN TO 10 KTS AND BELOW FOR MOST
SITES, BEFORE REVAMPING BACK UP TO 15-25 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 KNOTS AT ALL SITE EXCEPT DLS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LLWS OF
25045KTS AT BDN AROUND 00Z AND 23045KTS AT ALW AROUND 03Z.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN EARLY TO LATE MORNING SEEPING SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AND LINGER THROUGH 21-00Z. POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP (5-15%) AT PDT/PSC BETWEEN 21Z-00Z BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO DID NOT ADD THEM INTO FORECAST AS OF NOW. 90
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 63 38 55 35 / 90 30 70 40
ALW 61 41 55 38 / 100 40 70 60
PSC 62 39 56 34 / 90 20 60 30
YKM 54 34 52 29 / 100 40 60 20
HRI 62 39 56 35 / 90 20 60 30
ELN 50 29 47 27 / 100 50 60 30
RDM 55 29 49 25 / 90 50 90 30
LGD 58 31 51 31 / 90 50 80 60
GCD 59 33 49 30 / 90 30 80 40
DLS 58 41 54 39 / 90 70 90 40
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
ORZ041-044-507-508-510-511.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
ORZ502.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM PDT
MONDAY FOR ORZ509.
WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
WAZ024-027>029-521.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
WAZ030.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT
SUNDAY FOR WAZ522.
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...90
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