319
FXUS66 KPDT 042235
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
235 PM PST TUE NOV 4 2025
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW: CURRENT SATELLITE AND
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD COVERAGE INCREASING ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA. FOR THE REST OF TODAY, AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO PASS OVER
THE PACNW WITH BRIEFLY DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL RAIN SHOWERS GRADUALLY
BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS FROM THE
ONCOMING UPSLOPE FLOW. THANKS TO THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER, IT WILL ALSO
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SUPPORT. LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE
RAIN AMOUNTS UP TO 0.10 INCHES WITH THE WA/OR CASCADES UP TO
0.15-0.30 INCHES (30-50% CHANCE). OTHER THAN THAT, WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT UNTIL BECOMING BREEZY (15-25 MPH) AROUND THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS WA/OR CASCADES, JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS, PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND THE COLUMBIA RIVER OF GORGE.
THIS LATE EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER PROVIDING ONGOING MOISTURE
SUPPORT. RAIN AMOUNTS MAY REACH TO 0.15-0.30INCHES FOR THE WA/OR
CASCADES BUT UNDER 0.10 INCHES FOR THE LOWER EVELATIONS (>50%
CHANCE). ACCORDING TO SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK, PORTIONS OF EASTERN
OR AND THE WA/OR CASCADES ARE UNDER A GENERAL RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS COULD DEVELOP TOMORROW EVENING WITH
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND UPSLOPE FLOW.
HOWEVER, CHANCES ARE ON THE LOW-END (15-30%) FOR SEVERITY DUE TO
WEAK INSTABILITY AND DAYTIME HEATING. THIS WILL ALSO BRING BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL OR
EXTENDING TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25
MPH AND GUSTS AT 25-35 MPH (>60 CONFIDENCE). TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING, WE MAY SEE THE GUSTS RAMP UP TO 30-40 MPH
NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OR ALONG WITH THE CREST OF OR CASCADES
AND FOOTHILLS OF SOUTHERN/NORTHERN BLUES OF OR. WIND GUSTS COULD
REACH TO 45 MPH AROUND THE HIGH TERRAINS OF CENTRAL OR AND THE
BORDERS OF NORTH- CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OR BUT, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
THE EXTENT (20-40% PROB). SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE 6000 FEET, SO
SNOW IMPACTS WILL NOT BE EXPECTED FOR THESE DAYS.
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL CONTINUE
BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA WITH ONGOING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH THE PACNW THURSDAY, RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER FROM
WEDNESDAY'S SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DECREASING AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THE LOWER
EVELATIONS, BUT LINGERS OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. DRY CONDITIONS
MAY RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER.
THE CASCADES COULD SEE RAIN AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING BUT, CHANCES ARE
SLIGHT (15-30%). THE MODELS SEEM TO BE FAVORING A DRY PERIOD
OVERALL, THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM'S ARRIVAL LOOKS TO BE A BIT
SOONER FOR THE ECMWF WITH OTHERS HAVING A DELAYED ONSET. WET
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN MONDAY AS THE PACNW COMES IN A ZONAL
PATTERN AND COULD LINGER TUESDAY WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER.
FEASTER/97
AVIATION...18Z TAFS (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)
TAFS RANGE FROM VFR
TO LIFR THIS MORNING, AS LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR ALL SITES TO RETURN TO VFR
BY AFTERNOON, BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN MOVES IN. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF BDN AND RDM, EXPECT MORE MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER TIMING AND
CONFIDENCE IN THE LOWER CONDITIONS VARIES BY LOCATION.
WINDS WILL MAINLY BE 10 KTS OR LESS, HOWEVER BDN AND RDM WILL SEE
SOME GUSTS 25 TO 20 KTS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 42 64 44 63 / 60 80 60 50
ALW 45 63 47 62 / 70 90 80 60
PSC 41 61 44 62 / 70 70 40 30
YKM 40 55 37 56 / 100 90 60 60
HRI 42 62 44 64 / 70 70 40 40
ELN 37 52 34 52 / 100 100 70 60
RDM 43 59 37 58 / 90 70 70 60
LGD 48 58 40 56 / 60 80 80 60
GCD 47 60 41 57 / 80 90 60 50
DLS 45 59 46 60 / 100 100 90 90
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...97
LONG TERM....97
AVIATION...77
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