993
FXUS66 KPDT 050744
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1144 PM PST TUE NOV 4 2025
UPDATE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL
OREGON. OBSERVED VISIBILITY VALUES FOR THE BEND (KBDN) AND
REDMOND (KRDM) AIRPORT HAVE DROPPED TO <= 1/4 MILE OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS. REAL-TIME CAMERAS SHOWED DENSE FOG ALONG US-97 THROUGH
BEND AND REDMOND AND OTHER SURROUNDING PARTS OF THE AREA. DECIDED
TO GO UNTIL 12Z (4 AM LOCAL TIME) DUE TO ANTICIPATED WINDS
PICKING-UP LATER IN THE MORNING THAT WILL HELP MIX THE FOG.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 947 PM PST TUE NOV 4 2025/
AVIATION...06Z TAFS...A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION
WILL MAKE FOR VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE FORM
OF LOW CIGS, FOG, RAIN, AND WIND. LIGHT RAIN IS FALLING AT MOST
SITES THIS EVENING, WITH THE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS MAKING FOR LOW
CIGS 1-5 KFT AND EVEN DENSE FOG FOR BDN/RDM. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE AROUND SUNRISE AS WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT INCREASE,
ALLOWING CIGS TO REBOUND CLOSER TO 3-8 KFT. RAIN ITSELF IS NOT
EXPECTED TO CAUSE VSBY CONCERNS, BUT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LOW
WINDS COULD MAKE FOR MVFR AND EVEN IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE OVERNIGHT. THE BULK OF THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CEASE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, LEAVING ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SCT-BKN CIGS 5-10 KFT AS WINDS SCOUR OUT THE LAST OF
ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS.
SHOULD NOTE THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON THE
LOWER END (30-40%), AS WEATHER MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF
THE STRONGEST WINDS, FROM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. 74
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM PST TUE NOV 4 2025/
DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW: CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD COVERAGE INCREASING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY, AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO PASS OVER THE
PACNW WITH BRIEFLY DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL RAIN SHOWERS GRADUALLY
BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS FROM THE
ONCOMING UPSLOPE FLOW. THANKS TO THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER, IT WILL
ALSO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SUPPORT. LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL
HAVE RAIN AMOUNTS UP TO 0.10 INCHES WITH THE WA/OR CASCADES UP TO
0.15-0.30 INCHES (30-50% CHANCE). OTHER THAN THAT, WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT UNTIL BECOMING BREEZY (15-25 MPH) AROUND THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS WA/OR CASCADES, JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS, PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND THE COLUMBIA RIVER OF GORGE.
THIS LATE EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER PROVIDING ONGOING MOISTURE
SUPPORT. RAIN AMOUNTS MAY REACH TO 0.15-0.30INCHES FOR THE WA/OR
CASCADES BUT UNDER 0.10 INCHES FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS (>50%
CHANCE). ACCORDING TO SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK, PORTIONS OF EASTERN
OR AND THE WA/OR CASCADES ARE UNDER A GENERAL RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS COULD DEVELOP TOMORROW EVENING WITH
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND UPSLOPE FLOW.
HOWEVER, CHANCES ARE ON THE LOW-END (15-30%) FOR SEVERITY DUE TO
WEAK INSTABILITY AND DAYTIME HEATING. THIS WILL ALSO BRING BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL OR
EXTENDING TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25
MPH AND GUSTS AT 25-35 MPH (>60 CONFIDENCE). TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING, WE MAY SEE THE GUSTS RAMP UP TO 30-40 MPH
NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OR ALONG WITH THE CREST OF OR CASCADES
AND FOOTHILLS OF SOUTHERN/NORTHERN BLUES OF OR. WIND GUSTS COULD
REACH TO 45 MPH AROUND THE HIGH TERRAINS OF CENTRAL OR AND THE
BORDERS OF NORTH- CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OR BUT, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
THE EXTENT (20-40% PROB). SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE 6000 FEET, SO
SNOW IMPACTS WILL NOT BE EXPECTED FOR THESE DAYS.
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL CONTINUE
BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA WITH ONGOING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH THE PACNW THURSDAY, RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER FROM
WEDNESDAY'S SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DECREASING AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS, BUT LINGERS OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. DRY CONDITIONS
MAY RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER.
THE CASCADES COULD SEE RAIN AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING BUT, CHANCES ARE
SLIGHT (15-30%). THE MODELS SEEM TO BE FAVORING A DRY PERIOD
OVERALL, THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM'S ARRIVAL LOOKS TO BE A BIT
SOONER FOR THE ECMWF WITH OTHERS HAVING A DELAYED ONSET. WET
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN MONDAY AS THE PACNW COMES IN A ZONAL
PATTERN AND COULD LINGER TUESDAY WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER.
FEASTER/97
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 42 62 44 63 / 60 70 60 40
ALW 45 60 47 62 / 60 80 80 60
PSC 41 57 43 63 / 60 80 30 30
YKM 40 54 37 58 / 100 100 60 70
HRI 42 59 44 63 / 70 70 40 40
ELN 37 50 34 52 / 100 100 70 70
RDM 43 59 36 58 / 90 80 60 50
LGD 48 59 40 57 / 60 90 70 60
GCD 47 60 41 57 / 80 90 60 40
DLS 45 58 45 60 / 100 100 90 90
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ511.
WA...NONE.
UPDATE...95
SHORT TERM...97
LONG TERM....97
AVIATION...74
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