516
FXUS66 KPDT 051051
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
251 AM PST WED NOV 5 2025
DISCUSSION
OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS
VISIBILITIES <= 1/4 MILE FOR PARTS OF
BEND/REDMOND/PENDLETON/MISSION. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FOG
ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL OREGON AND THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS IN OREGON. NOT EXPECTING FOG TOO LAST LONG IN THE
MORNING SO WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED THE ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM WHEN
WINDS WILL GET A LITTLE STRONGER TO HOPEFULLY MIX THE SURFACE AND
LIFT THE FOG OUT OF THE AREA. IF FOG STILL PERSIST CLOSER TO 4 AM,
I MIGHT EXTEND IT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS LATER INTO THE MORNING. FOR
NOW, WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED AND COMMENCES SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PARTS OF THE BASIN WITH THE MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IS SITUATED NEAR THE CASCADES AND
GORGE AREAS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA,
DELIVERING SOME PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS THE SYSTEM WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE 6000 TO 8000 FEET,
LEAVING THIS A PRIMARILY RAIN EVENT EXCEPT FOR VERY HIGH
PEAKS/CRESTS IN THE CASCADES AND WALLOWA'S.
WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION, BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON THROUGH THE
BLUE MOUNTAINS & FOOTHILLS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY
WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
REMAIN SHOWERY WITH SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN THROUGH THE BLUE/WALLOWA MOUNTAINS
AS INSTABILITY INCREASES COUPLED WITH CAM PAINTBALLS SHOWING >40
REFLECTIVITY IN LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE ACTIVITY AS THE SPC HAS US
IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK BUT ALSO DAYTIME HEATING SEEMS A
BIT LIMITED WITH THE SHORTER DAYS AND LACK OF ADEQUATE CLOUD
BREAKING PRIOR TO STORM DEVELOPMENT.
A BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE FELT WITH DRY CONDITIONS
GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS AND AMPLIFY'S
SHORTLY BEFORE PUSHING ASHORE SOMETIME SATURDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON
HOURS. PRECIP CHANCES DROP TO 0 FOR THE MOST OF THE REGION GOING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT MAY PROVE SHORT-LIVED FOR BEFORE ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MAKES ITS WAY IN THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WORK WEEK AND
DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.
AVIATION...06Z TAFS...A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION
WILL MAKE FOR VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE FORM
OF LOW CIGS, FOG, RAIN, AND WIND. LIGHT RAIN IS FALLING AT MOST
SITES THIS EVENING, WITH THE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS MAKING FOR LOW
CIGS 1-5 KFT AND EVEN DENSE FOG FOR BDN/RDM. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE AROUND SUNRISE AS WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT INCREASE,
ALLOWING CIGS TO REBOUND CLOSER TO 3-8 KFT. RAIN ITSELF IS NOT
EXPECTED TO CAUSE VSBY CONCERNS, BUT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LOW
WINDS COULD MAKE FOR MVFR AND EVEN IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE OVERNIGHT. THE BULK OF THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CEASE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, LEAVING ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SCT-BKN CIGS 5-10 KFT AS WINDS SCOUR OUT THE LAST OF
ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS.
SHOULD NOTE THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON THE
LOWER END (30-40%), AS WEATHER MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF
THE STRONGEST WINDS, FROM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. 74
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 62 44 63 42 / 70 60 40 100
ALW 60 47 62 45 / 80 80 60 100
PSC 57 43 63 42 / 80 30 30 90
YKM 54 37 58 37 / 100 60 70 90
HRI 59 44 63 43 / 70 40 40 90
ELN 50 34 52 33 / 100 70 70 100
RDM 59 36 58 34 / 80 60 50 90
LGD 59 40 57 40 / 90 70 60 100
GCD 60 41 57 41 / 90 60 40 100
DLS 58 45 60 45 / 100 90 90 100
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ORZ507-
511.
WA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...74
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