006
FXUS66 KPDT 061643
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
843 AM PST THU NOV 6 2025
DISCUSSION
AVIATION
THE WEATHER FOR THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CAN BE
CHARACTERIZED AS VFR AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS (12 KNOTS AND
UNDER) FOR MOST OF TODAY WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES DEVELOPING
FROM WEST TO EAST AND PEAKING THIS EVENING (3Z). DESPITE THE
RAINFALL IT LOOKS LIKE THE CEILINGS STAY ABOVE MVFR THRESHOLDS
(4-5KFT AGL MOSTLY) WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO HAVE CEILINGS AS
LOW AS 3000 FT AGL NEAR DLS. THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT WITH RAINS LINGERING A BIT LONGER AT ALW BEFORE
TOTAL CLEARING ON FRIDAY. LOOK FOR AN UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS
OVERNIGHT BEHIND TO THE COLD FRONT, WITH PEAK WESTERLY WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 30 KNOTS TAPERING OFF AT BDN/RDM/YKM BY AROUND 11Z AND
REMAINING BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY A THE OTHER TERMINALS.
RUSSELL/71
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 308 AM PST THU NOV 6 2025/
DISCUSSION...CURRENT RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH
THE AREA, WITH SOME MORE MODERATE RAIN FALLING IN THE CASCADES.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A SHORTWAVE IS CROSSING THE REGION, ALLOWING
MORE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. AS WE AHEAD
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL DROP INTO
THE AREA, DROPPING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN INCREASE AS WELL
AS MUCH OF THE AREA CAN EXPECT UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN
(60-80% CHANCE), WHILE HIGHER ELEVATED AREAS WILL SEE UPWARDS OF A
HALF INCH TO AN INCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING (90%+ CHANCE).
WE'LL APPROACH A MUCH MORE DRIER, COOLER PATTERN AS A RIDGE PUSHES
ASHORE OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUES TO AMPLIFIES AS IT GETS
CLOSER TO THE REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AND WINDS WILL WEAKEN
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, ALLOWING FOR MORE EFFECTIVE RADIATIVE
COOLING TO PURSUE. LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTING TO DROP BELOW FREEZING
IN MANY AREAS IN THE REGION (80-90% CHANCE). DRY PATTERN WILL
PERSIST GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SEEMS TO FALL SOMETIME LATE MONDAY TO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TIME FRAME, AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT AND WE
MOVE INTO A MORE ZONAL SETUP. MOST PRECIP CHANCES SEEM TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CASCADES AND WALLOWAS IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN REGION.
ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND MOSTLY RAIN SINCE SNOW
LEVELS REMAIN 6500-7000+ FEET. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP GOING THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK, INCREASING PRECIP
COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION, BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP MONITORING FOR
EXACT DETAILS BUT LOOKS TO BE A MAINLY RAIN EVENT COUPLED WITH
LIGHT SNOW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS IN THE TALLEST PEAKS.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY CENTRAL OREGON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO
DEVELOP IN THAT TIME FRAME WITH THE INCOMING SECOND SYSTEM. NOT
LOOKING TO INITIATE ANY HIGHLIGHTS IN ELIGIBLE ZONES BUT POSSIBLE
WE COULD TEMPORALLY SEE SOME 40 MPH GUSTS MIX DOWN IN SOME PARTS
OF CENTRAL OREGON AND AREAS ACROSS THE BASIN (40-60% CHANCE).
AVIATION...12Z TAFS...ALL SITES WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE INCOMING
SYSTEM AND EXPERIENCE RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE PERIOD. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DLS WILL
SEEING MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS OF 2.5KFT BETWEEN 14021Z.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP ACROSS TAF SITES RDM/BDN AFTER 13Z AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ALL OTHER TAF SITES WILL
ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE ONLY
SITES SEEING WINDS BELOW 10 KTS BEING DLS. CIGS WILL BE MOST 5-
10KFT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 63 40 56 32 / 50 90 30 0
ALW 61 44 54 36 / 60 90 40 10
PSC 63 42 59 31 / 50 90 10 0
YKM 58 36 56 30 / 80 90 10 0
HRI 64 42 58 32 / 50 80 10 0
ELN 52 34 50 27 / 80 90 20 0
RDM 59 33 53 26 / 60 70 10 0
LGD 58 38 52 28 / 70 90 60 10
GCD 58 40 52 30 / 50 90 30 0
DLS 60 43 57 37 / 90 90 40 10
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...71
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