255
FXUS66 KPDT 080514
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
914 PM PST FRI NOV 7 2025
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
AVIATION...06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED, WITH MID-LEVEL SCT
CIGS 10-15 KFT AND LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS PREVAILING AT ALL
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. 74
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 238 PM PST FRI NOV 7 2025/
DISCUSSION...KEY MESSAGES:
1. MOSTLY DRY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
2. TIMING UNCERTAINTY IN WEATHER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK
OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS WILL ALSO SLACKEN THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX.
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD (95 PERCENT CONFIDENCE). SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL,
WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70 LIKELY (70-95
PERCENT CONFIDENCE) IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN OREGON AND FAR
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. AS FAR AS OTHER TANGIBLE WEATHER UNDER THE
RIDGE, BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY AND OTHER WIND-PRONE
PORTIONS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP (60 PERCENT CONFIDENCE) IN LOW-
LYING SPOTS OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (80 PERCENT)
THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
FLATTENING THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY (80 PERCENT CHANCE) REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
CASCADES AND NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS. CURRENTLY, LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS (TRACE TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH) ARE
FORECAST ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AND HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS. BEST CHANCES (50-70 PERCENT) OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE WA CASCADE CREST, WITH
LOWEST CHANCES (15-30 PERCENT) FOR THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS.
LOOKING AHEAD, CLUSTERS OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE 500-HPA PATTERN. WHILE
ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE ALL SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN OFFSHORE
CLOSED LOW IN THE WED/THU TIME PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK, MEMBERS DIFFER
WITH REGARD TO THE AMPLITUDE, LOCATION, AND ULTIMATE INTERACTION
WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA THROUGH THE WEEK.
AS OF THE 12Z ENSEMBLE RUNS, DRY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED (70
PERCENT OR MORE OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS) TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
WITH A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION MORE LIKELY BY THE THU/FRI PERIOD
AS ENSEMBLE MEAN 500-HPA FIELDS SHOW TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 33 55 34 52 / 0 0 0 0
ALW 37 55 37 53 / 0 0 0 0
PSC 32 52 32 51 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 30 52 32 54 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 33 53 34 51 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 28 48 30 51 / 0 0 0 0
RDM 26 60 29 63 / 0 0 0 0
LGD 29 55 35 60 / 0 0 0 0
GCD 30 59 35 65 / 0 0 0 0
DLS 39 55 38 55 / 10 10 0 0
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...86
LONG TERM....86
AVIATION...74
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