621
FXUS66 KPDT 132245
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
245 PM PST THU NOV 13 2025
KEY POINTS...
1. PERSISTENTLY WET WEATHER PATTERN THURSDAY & FRIDAY AFTERNOON
2. BREEZY WINDS THURSDAY & FRIDAY
3. MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE WIDESPREAD RAIN RETURNS SUNDAY
DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...CURRENT SATELLITE
SHOWS A DECENT CLOUD DECK OVERHEAD ACROSS THE REGION. RADAR SHOWS
SOME CELLS THAT HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PUTTING DOWN SOME RAIN WITH
GROUND OBSERVATIONS SHOWING 0.03-0.06 INCHES OF RAIN IN AND AROUND
YAKIMA OVER THE LAST THREE HOURS.
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH 0.01-0.05 INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION THROUGH TONIGHT. RAW ENSEMBLES SHOW A 20-30% CHANCE
FOR 0.05 INCHES IN THE BASIN WHILE THE REMAINING AREAS WILL SEE 40-
80% PROBABILITIES. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
BEFORE KEEPING TO MAINLY THE RIDGETOPS AFTER 1 PM FRIDAY. MODELS
SHOW THE WEDGE BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WE ARE CURRENTLY
SITTING UNDER WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WARMER
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NBM
SHOWS SNOW LEVELS TO REMAIN ABOVE 6-7KFT THROUGH MIDWEEK.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO LEAD TO THE ENHANCEMENT OF THE
WINDS THROUGH CENTRAL OR, THROUGH THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS AND
THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUES. DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN THROUGH THE DAY BRINGING
PROBABILITIES OF 30-40 MPH GUSTS ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. 70-
90% OF THE RAW ENSEMBLES ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE WIND GUST SPEEDS.
BY FRIDAY, MODELS SHOW THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO SHIFT TO A
MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST COMPONENT BRINGING THE BREEZY CONDITIONS TO
THE CASCADE GAPS, MAINLY THROUGH YAKIMA VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE
WA CASCADE EAST SLOPES. THE BASIN WILL SEE HEIGHTENED WINDS AS WELL
BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 MPH WITH 30-50% PROBABILITIES.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...MODELS SHOW A BIT OF A
COMPLEX PATTERN BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
THE SOUTH OF THE REGION BEGINS TRAVERSING NORTH IN TURN FLATTENING
AND THEN LIFTING THE LOW TO THE NORTH. CLUSTERS ARE ALSO SHOWING A
DEVIATION BETWEEN ENSEMBLES AS TO HOW THIS COMPLEX PATTERN WILL PLAY
OUT. HOWEVER, MOST MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT FLOW OVER THE REGION
BEGINS TO TAKE ON A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGING IN COOLER AIR
BEGINNING SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE LOCKED
ALONG THE CASCADE CRESTS WITH 30-70% PROBABILITIES OF 0.06 INCHES
ALONG THE OR CASCADES AND 60-90% ALONG THE WA CASCADES AND BLEEDING
DOWN INTO KITTITAS VALLEY WITH ELLENSBURG SEEING 40-60% PROBABILITIES
OF UP TO 0-06 INCHES AS WELL SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE WILL SEE LITTLE TO
NO RAINFALL.
SUNDAY ONWARDS...MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVIATE A BIT WITH REGARDS TO
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE NEXT INCOMING WAVE. CLUSTERS ARE SHOWING
LOCATION AND TIMING DIFFERENCES BUT DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING
A ELONGATED TROUGH FORMING OFF THE COAST OF B.C.. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL AGAIN DOMINATE THE REGION BUT THE AIR ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION IS MORE TIED UP WITH COLDER AIR. NBM ENSEMBLES AND GUIDANCE
SHOWS THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL STEADILY BEGIN TO DECREASE AND BY SUNDAY
NIGHT BEGINNING TO DIP INTO THE 4500-5000 FT RANGE. LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE CASCADES WILL OCCUR WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION WILL SEE LIGHT RAIN ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE THE NEXT PROBABLE DAY WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN OR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
REGARDS TO THE INCOMING SYSTEM WEDNESDAY. 90
AVIATION...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...18Z TAFS
A MIXED BAG OF SITES
AT VFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SEVEN TERMINALS. LOW STRATUS
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER ALW AND PSC, ALTHOUGH PSC SHOWS AN OVC
DECK THAT WILL SOON LIFT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, ALONG WITH
VISIBILITY CLEARING UP AS SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE OFF AN ON WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES OCCURRING RIGHT NOW, WHILE CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO GO DOWN THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH MOSTLY TEMPO GROUPS PUT IN
THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION. WE'LL BE MOSTLY VFR AFTER
20Z, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS FOR LOWER DECKS AND OBSCURE
VISIBILITY AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE EVENING TO EARLY MORNING FOR
TEMPORARY SUB- VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SITES (5-15% CHANCE),
ALTHOUGH THE GREATEST CHANCES SEEM TO BE THE SITES OUTSIDE OF
CENTRAL OR (BDN/RDM SPECIFICALLY). WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT
TO BREEZY, WITH CENTRAL OR SITES (BDN/RDM) BEING THE STRONGEST
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH LASTING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 44 60 42 60 / 80 40 10 10
ALW 48 59 46 58 / 90 50 20 20
PSC 44 61 45 60 / 70 20 10 10
YKM 40 58 40 59 / 40 30 20 10
HRI 44 61 43 61 / 70 20 10 10
ELN 36 52 37 55 / 60 40 40 30
RDM 36 58 32 59 / 60 10 0 0
LGD 44 58 38 58 / 90 50 20 10
GCD 42 59 36 60 / 80 20 0 0
DLS 47 59 46 58 / 80 40 30 30
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...90
LONG TERM....90
AVIATION...95
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page