246
FXUS66 KPDT 141116
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
316 AM PST FRI NOV 14 2025
AVIATION
A BROKEN BAND OF RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
FLIGHT CATEGORIES HAVE BEEN LARGELY VFR IN THIS RAIN BAND HOWEVER
YKM HAS FLUCTUATED MORE INTO THE MFVR/IFR AREA THIS MORNING AS
VISIBILITY WAS REDUCED TO 2 1/2 MILES IN MIST. AS RAIN TAPERS OFF
AND BASED ON LAMP GUIDANCE AND HREF PROBABILISTIC THRESHOLDS FOR
SUB ONE HALF MILE OR LOWER, IFR OR WORSE VISIBILITY CHANCES ARE
QUITE LOW THIS MORNING (10% OR LESS) AT THE LOCAL TAF SITES.
NEVERTHELESS IT WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE OUTLYING POSSIBLE
OUTCOMES. RUSSELL/71
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 144 AM PST FRI NOV 14 2025/
DISCUSSION...OVERNIGHT RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE BASIN AS A DEFORMATION BAND SITS ATOP THE FORECAST AREA.
THESE SHOWERS WILL WANE AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS OF FRIDAY
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS OUT OF THE REGION AND
TRANSITORY RIDGING BUILDS IN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE
DEPICTS PERSISTENT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CASCADE CRESTS AND
BLUE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TODAY AND MUCH OF SATURDAY,
AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AND SUPPORTS OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS,
BUT NBM PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH SAVE FOR THE CRESTS OF THE
CENTRAL WA CASCADES AND NORTHERN BLUES. ELSEWHERE, STABLE AND MILD
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
PORTIONS OF THE BASIN AND FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUES MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG REDEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY, AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THIS RECENT SYSTEM WILL
DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER, BUT LEAVE US WITH MOIST LOWER-LEVELS
AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE ISN'T GREAT (30-40%) IN
EXACTLY WHICH AREAS WILL BE MOST EFFECTED, SO MENTIONED THE USUAL
BROAD AREA OF AT LEAST THE LOWER BASIN AND FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUES
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF PATCHY FOG DURING PRIMARILY THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THE NEXT ROUND OF AREA-WIDE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY AS A CUTOFF LOW CLIPS US FROM THE GREAT BASIN. SNOW
LEVELS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT ABOVE 6000 FT, AND NBM PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF RELATIVELY MODEST QPF, WITH ABOUT
A 20-30% CHANCE OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN FALLING ACROSS MOST OF
OUR POPULATION CENTERS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS THAT
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL TURN COOLER NEXT WEEK, MAKING FOR BETTER
MOUNTAIN SNOW CHANCES, HOWEVER SHOULD NOTE THAT GUIDANCE OVERALL
HOLDS OFF ON ANY ORGANIZED SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION UNTIL AROUND
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY NEXT WEEK, MAKING THE WORK WEEK UP UNTIL THAT
POINT DEFINED BY LOW-END (30-40%) POPS FOR OUR HIGH MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND GENERALLY COOLING TEMPERATURES OVER THE COURSE OF THE PERIOD -
DOWN TOWARD 40S FOR HIGHS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. 74
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 61 42 61 39 / 60 10 10 10
ALW 59 47 60 42 / 70 20 20 10
PSC 62 45 61 40 / 40 10 10 10
YKM 59 41 59 41 / 30 30 10 10
HRI 62 44 61 40 / 40 10 10 10
ELN 53 39 55 40 / 50 50 30 20
RDM 59 33 59 31 / 10 0 0 0
LGD 57 38 58 37 / 50 10 20 10
GCD 59 36 60 37 / 10 0 10 10
DLS 61 47 59 45 / 50 40 30 10
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...74
AVIATION...71
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