326
FXUS66 KPDT 300607
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1007 PM PST SAT NOV 29 2025
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE LIFR AND IFR CATEGORIES FOR MANY OF
THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS THE AREAS RECOVERS FROM AS WEAK UPPER
TROUGH OVERSPREADING A COLD SURFACE AIRMASS. DLS AND YKM WILL BE
MVFR OR BETTER. FARTHER EASTWARD THE PDT AND ALW HAD LINGERING
-SN AND LIMITED VISIBILITY TO AROUND 1 MILE AS A RESULT. THIS WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. PSC WAS A LITTLE WARMER RESULTING
IN THE RAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE. TO THE WEST, BDN AND RDM HAVE LAV
FORECASTS THAT MAINTAIN THE STRATUS OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE HOPE
OF ANY IMPROVEMENT UNTIL AROUND 12Z AND AFTERWARD. RUSSELL/71
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 247 PM PST SAT NOV 29 2025/
DISCUSSION...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IS COVERED BY A DECK OF LOW
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME PATCHY FOG REPORTED ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUES, AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PUSHES A COLD
AIR MASS INTO THE PACNW. RIDING THIS NW FLOW WILL BE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH, WHICH THREATENS TO BRING A ROUND OF SNOW TO PRIMARILY THE
BLUE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE REGION
WILL THEN FALL UNDER THIS COLD NW PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.
IN TRACKING THIS UPCOMING SHORTWAVE, HI-RES MODELS SEEM TO SHIFT THE
MID AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MORE NORTHERLY BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN A SHIFT OF THE SNOW FORECAST AWAY FROM THE
NORTHERN BLUES AND MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN STRETCH OF THE
MOUNTAINS. SHOULD CONTINUE TO NOTE THAT THIS SYSTEM REMAINS MOISTURE-
STARVED DUE TO ITS CONTINENTAL POLAR ORIGIN, WITH NAM PWATS RANGING
IN THE 0.3 TO 0.5 RANGE, SO MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS DRIVING THE PRECIP
IN THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OROGRAPHIC. EVEN THEN, GUIDANCE GENERALLY
ONLY DEPICTS ABOUT AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE
RIDGETOPS OF THE SOUTHERN BLUES, WITH A HOTSPOT AROUND THE
STRAWBERRIES. STILL, SUCH PATTERNS DO FAVOR OROGRAPHIC SNOW ALONG
THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUES, WOULD COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT
PENDLETON. BUT WITH THE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM,
CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED A LITTLE ON PENDLETON RECEIVING EVEN A HALF
INCH OF SNOW. SUCH A SCENARIO ISN'T INCONCEIVABLE, BUT FORECASTING
MESSAGE AROUND THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY LEANS TOWARD A 'DUSTING' OF
SNOW RATHER THAN ANYTHING PARTICULARLY IMPACTFUL.
TRANSITORY RIDGING THEN MOVES IN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BRINGING
WITH IT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE BASIN. THE
NEXT SYSTEM THEN LOOKS TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. MODELS THUS FAR FAVOR A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY FOR
THIS SYSTEM, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR THE
NORTHERN BLUES MORE SO THAN THE SOUTHERN, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
(30%) IN THIS SYSTEM RESULTING IN ANY HEADLINES, WITH ONLY A COUPLE
INCHES CURRENTLY FORECASTED FOR MEACHAM, TOLLGATE, ETC. ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST WE'LL REMAIN LOCKED IN THIS NW FLOW PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST
THE END OF NEXT WEEK, WITH INTERMITTENT PRECIP CHANCES MATERIALIZING
AS SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW REGIME SWEEP THROUGH THE
PACNW. 74
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 37 25 37 23 / 10 60 0 0
ALW 36 28 36 26 / 0 40 10 0
PSC 39 24 39 24 / 10 20 0 0
YKM 40 23 42 24 / 10 10 0 0
HRI 39 26 39 24 / 10 40 0 0
ELN 37 21 39 23 / 10 10 0 0
RDM 43 23 39 19 / 0 20 10 0
LGD 40 26 40 21 / 0 60 0 0
GCD 45 26 39 22 / 0 60 0 0
DLS 43 32 44 30 / 10 20 0 0
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...71
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