329
FXUS66 KPDT 210955
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
155 AM PST WED JAN 21 2026
DISCUSSION
THE FORECAST IS MORE OR LESS STATUS QUO. A LOW CLOUD
DECK REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRETY OF THE
FORECAST AREA BELOW 4000 FEET. PATCHY FOG CAN BE OBSERVED IN THE
WALLOWA AND JOHN DAY VALLEY, AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL OREGON. FREEZING FOG ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND THE WALLOWA VALLEY THROUGH AROUND LATE
MORNING WEDNESDAY. WITH A DRY NW FLOW PATTERN OVER THE PACNW, DON'T
EXPECT THIS CLOUD DECK TO CHANGE MUCH (OUTSIDE OF THE FRINGES) UNTIL
PERHAPS FRIDAY, WHICH WILL AT THE VERY LEAST INITIATE A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT IN DUE TIME WILL EVENTUALLY SCOURGE OUT THIS GLOOM.
PRECIP THREATS ARE PRETTY MINIMAL IN THE NEAR FUTURE, HOWEVER GLOBAL
MODELS DO HINT AT AN UPPER-LEVEL JET OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
WHILE MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THIS JET LOOKS TO BE LIMITED DUE TO
ITS MORE ARCTIC ORIGIN, THIS PATTERN COULD STILL BRING IN ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND SURFACE WINDS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX OUT THE LOW
CLOUD DECK. CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS ONLY LOW-MODERATE (40-
50%), AS GUIDANCE STILL OVERALL SUGGESTS A DRY FORECAST WITH ONLY
LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH, BUT ANY KIND OF MECHANICAL
MIXING WOULD BE WELCOMED JUST SO WE CAN SEE THE SUN AGAIN.
CONSENSUS ACROSS ENSEMBLES, HOWEVER, IS TO INTRODUCE A MORE ACTIVE,
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FOR THE REGION STARTING LATE WEEKEND AND LASTING
AROUND MIDWEEK. WHILE NOTHING IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS AN
IMPACTFUL PRECIP OR WIND THREAT, OUR PRIMARY ISSUE WITH REGARDS TO
THIS LOW CLOUD DECK HAS BEEN THE PRESENCE OF A STAGNANT, STABLE
PATTERN, SO THIS AT THE VERY LEAST LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF BREAK FROM
THAT. EMPHASIS IS ON BRIEF, HOWEVER, AS ENSEMBLES GENERALLY AGREE
THAT RIDGING WILL RETURN TO THE REGION MIDWEEK ONWARD. 74
AVIATION...12Z TAFS
VARIABLE CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS ALL
SITES, WITH MVFR AT KDLS/KPDT/KYKM/KALW/KPSC AND LIFR AT KRDM/KBDN
DUE TO REDUCED CEILINGS OF 200-300 FEET. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED PERSIST, WITH DROPPING CEILINGS AT KPDT/KALW LEADING TO
IFR CEILINGS OF 800-900 FEET THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE, CONDITIONS
WILL STAY CONSTANT THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING TO MVFR
BRIEFLY FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KRDM/KBDN ONLY IMPROVING TO IFR DUE TO CEILINGS
STAYING BELOW 1KFT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD, KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY AND WINDS LIGHT
(BELOW 10 KTS). 75
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 31 21 34 21 / 0 0 0 0
ALW 32 24 33 23 / 0 0 0 0
PSC 35 24 35 23 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 35 22 35 20 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 33 24 35 22 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 33 21 33 20 / 0 0 0 0
RDM 38 17 41 17 / 0 0 0 0
LGD 39 21 39 20 / 0 0 0 0
GCD 47 21 44 21 / 0 0 0 0
DLS 37 26 38 26 / 0 0 0 0
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ORZ050.
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR ORZ510.
WA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...74
AVIATION...75
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